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Saturday, September 16
On second thought ...

By Keith Law
Special to ESPN.com

Editor's note: The team of writers from the Baseball Prospectus (tm) will be writing twice a week for ESPN.com. You can check out more of their work at their web site at baseballprospectus.com.

One of the signature pleasures of being a baseball fan is evaluating trades. It's a tradition that goes back to the earliest days of the game, one of those common areas that everyone who loves the game -- numbers-toting analysts and hard-core anti-statheads alike -- can enjoy. No matter where on the fan spectrum you reside, though, you have to agree that some recent swaps have been unabashed steals for one team.

Pirates trade Ricardo Rincon to the Indians for Brian Giles
When this deal was made, it certainly didn't seem that John Hart had fared that poorly. In 1998, Ricardo Rincon was one of the best middle relievers in baseball (2.91 ERA, 14 saves), and he's left-handed to boot. But Hart was quick to give away Brian Giles, one of the few hitters in the Cleveland system who knew anything about the strike zone, and he has paid the price a few times over.


	You know Cleveland would love to have Brian Giles back.

Giles doesn't get much press, but he's one of the top hitters in baseball today. So far this year, he has already been worth about 44 runs more than the average outfielder, someone like, say, Wil Cordero. Giles is hitting .313 with a .431 OBP and a .598 slugging average. He has drawn 106 walks, scored 103 runs and even stolen six bases without being caught. Giles can play center field in a pinch, although he won't win any Gold Gloves out there. (Then again, maybe he will.)

Among Cleveland hitters this year, only Manny Ramirez has come close to Giles' performance, although without the injuries Ramirez would certainly have surpassed Giles' production. Without Giles, Hart has run a number of less-than-inspiring hitters through his lineup, from Richie Sexson to David Segui to Alex Ramirez to Mark Whiten to Wil Cordero (there's that name again ... ). If Hart still had Giles in left field, he wouldn't have had to throw away Enrique Wilson, the team's best utility infielder, for Cordero. He wouldn't have had to deal Ricky Ledee for hitting help, but could have saved him for the pitching the team so desperately needs.

The lone bright spot for Cleveland is that Rincon has recovered from elbow surgery; then again, he seems to have left his control in the hospital and may not be much use down the stretch. It's hard to say how much Hart's blunder has cost the team, but in a race this tight, it could easily be the difference between making the playoffs and going home.

Braves trade Bruce Chen to the Phillies for Andy Ashby
Sometimes, trading the prospect for the "proven veteran" doesn't pay any dividends at all, particularly when the veteran in question is having a lousy season and might be hurt. Bobby Cox's stubborn refusal to put Bruce Chen into the rotation, instead subjecting Braves fans to Terry Mulholland and John Burkett, motivated Braves' GM John Schuerholz to shop Chen in search of a veteran starter (in other words, one Cox would use).

Chen had pitched reasonably well in 1999, but was yanked out of the rotation due to his tendency to give up the long ball. The Braves used him exclusively out of the pen early in 2000, and he was excellent, posting a 2.50 ERA and limiting batters to a .232 average in the first half. The Phillies realized what they had and put Chen right in the rotation after the trade, and he has responded: in 11 starts, Chen has posted a 3.46 ERA, cut his walk rate in half (23 in 75.2 innings), and surrendered just nine home runs. The Phillies haven't scored many runs for Chen, but based on his performance Chen should be about 6-3 instead of 3-2.

Ashby, on the other hand, has been inconsistent and occasionally lousy since the trade. He has also made 12 starts, and has tossed two complete games, including a shutout. But his ERA is nearly a run higher than Chen's at 4.38, and he's more hittable (84 hits in 76 innings). He's also significantly more expensive, although a half-season of Ashby's salary is probably pocket change to the Braves. If the Braves fall to the Mets by a game or two, you can place the blame squarely on the designers of this trade.

Diamondbacks trade Tony Batista and John Frascatore to the Blue Jays for Dan Plesac
Everyone knows this trade as one of the most lopsided in recent memory, if not in baseball history. The Diamondbacks, blinded by their irrational desire for an experienced left-hander in the pen, traded away Tony Batista, an outstanding power-hitting shortstop, for the once-great Dan Plesac. Since the trade, Batista has hit 64 home runs in 233 games, while Plesac has pitched just 66 average innings of short relief.

The impact the trade has had on the Diamondbacks this year has gotten very little press. A year after leading the league in runs scored, the Snakes have had trouble pushing men across the plate in 2000, ranking around tenth in the NL in runs despite another mind-boggling performance by Steve Finley and a repeat performance by Luis Gonzalez. Here are this year's numbers from the players the Snakes have used at the three positions Batista can play (shortstop, third base and second base), along with Batista's numbers:

              AB    OBP   SLG   OPS
Jay Bell      516  .353  .424   777	
Tony Womack   575  .310  .386   696	
Matt Williams 299  .301  .391   692	
Tony Batista  547  .315  .536   851

You can make two easy arguments why Arizona should have kept Batista. First, given the ages and histories of Jay Bell and Matt Williams, it was pretty likely one would get hurt. Williams did, to the point where his season has been a complete zero for Arizona. Second, Batista is simply a better hitter than Bell or Womack. The trade easily cost Arizona two to three games in the standings this year.

Keith Law may be reached at klaw@baseballprospectus.com.


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