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Mike Monroe
Tuesday, November 2
Blazers, Spurs lead pack



Since this is my last chance to do so before the regular season begins, I feel obligated to predict the top eight teams in the West, which is a little like trying to list the best beaches in the Virgin Islands or the best restaurants in Provence.

Derek Fisher
Where do Derek Fisher and the Lakers fit in in the playoff picture?
Suffice to say, even if I'm wrong on the order, I'm going to be right about one thing: One of the top four teams in the West is going to win the 2000 NBA title. The West is so far superior to the Eastern Conference that I contend not one Eastern team could finish higher than fourth in the West. Further, not more than two Eastern teams could make the playoff field in the West.

Take that, Denberg!

Here, then, my eight Western playoff qualifiers, in order:

Portland, of course, made the greatest improvement in the entire league. Not only did the Trail Blazers add one Dream Teamer to their lineup, Scottie Pippen, but two, snatching Steve Smith away from the Hawks while ridding themselves of the knotty problem of Isaiah Rider (enough of a knotty problem all by himself) and Jimmy Jackson both believing the starting off-guard spot belonged to him.

Since the Spurs, merely the defending NBA champs, lost Sean Elliott, they are not quite as formidable as they were in their remarkable run to the title. But they still have the NBA's best player, Tim Duncan, and David Robinson, whose creaky back will be loose enough by mid-season for San Antonio to finish with the second-best record in the West.

Phil Jackson has heaped more public criticism on the Lakers in the preseason than Del Harris and Kurt Rambis did in two previous seasons, which no doubt offends the sensibilities of some of the L.A. superstars. However, it is just what the Lakers have needed. Shaquille O'Neal remains the most powerful player in the league and Kobe Bryant one of its most exciting, and Glen Rice is one of its best pure shooters. Jackson will coalesce all that divergent talent into a productive, focused unit before season's end.

Not only did the Phoenix Suns land one of the East's very best players in Penny Hardaway, they may have come up with the steal of the draft in Shawn Marion. Jason Kidd and Hardaway are going to drive opponents nuts this season.

The Kings were the surprise of last season. They won't sneak up on anyone this time around, which could make things a little more difficult. And they still will allow more points than a really good team should. But as long as Chris Webber's preseason free throw improvement continues, they will move up one notch in the conference standings.

The Rockets will be trying to give Charles Barkley an appropriately enjoyable sendoff to the career he insists he is finishing this season, his 16th in the NBA. But he and Hakeem Olajuwon are getting a little long in the tooth, and they added so many pieces it is going to take a while before they jell. They may finish sixth, but they are going to be oh so dangerous in the playoffs.

I know, this is a dramatic dropoff for the Jazz. But they lost one of their most valuable energy players, Shandon Anderson, without compensation in the offseason, and their big three, Karl Malone, John Stockton and Jeff Hornacek, aren't getting any younger. Their big offseason acquisition was Olden Polynice, hardly the kind of player to strike fear in the hearts of the Blazers, Lakers and Spurs.

The battle for this final playoff berth in the West is going to be fierce. The contenders: Minnesota and Seattle. Minnesota, which has made the playoff field the last two seasons, has a legitimate MVP candidate in Kevin Garnett, but so does Seattle, in Gary Payton. Garnett is 7-feet tall. I always side with size.

Wandering the West
  • You want empirical proof the Blazers are the NBA's best team? Try this: In running to a 6-0 preseason record, Portland averaged 107.5 points per game by shooting 49 percent from the floor. They are holding opponents to 96.7 points on 44.4 percent shooting. The Blazers have outrebounded their preseason opponents by an average of 8.3 a game, and that is with their top rebounder, Brian Grant, out indefinitely as he recovers from knee surgery. Seven players are averaging double figures in the preseason -- guard Bonzi Wells (14.3 ppg), Pippen (14.0), forward Rasheed Wallace (13.7), center Jermaine O'Neal (12.0), guard Greg Anthony (11.2) center Arvydas Sabonis (10.4) and point guard Damon Stoudamire (10.0). And the Blazers have the deepest team in the NBA. Only Pippen has played more than 32 minutes in a preseason game. He played 33 minutes against the Lakers, refusing to sit out after dislocating his left index finger late in the first quarter. With Stoudamire sitting that one out (sore right foot) Pippen operated at point guard for much of the game and abused old Chicago teammate Ron Harper. In other words, Pippen appears ready to do for the Blazers what the Rockets thought he would do for them.

  • David Robinson has made progress with his still back, but still has a ways to go. He looked pathetic in a preseason game at Houston Tuesday, getting stripped three times under the basket and finishing with only two points. "David's not ready to go yet, obviously," coach Gregg Popovich said. "He's getting better. He's starting to feel better as we move along. But he's definitely not ready to go and be the player he was at the end of last season."

    Robinson has gotten used to his slow start, admitting he has needed a good month or more to loosen up his back ever since he injured it prior to the 1996-97 season.

    "It's just a part of the process," Robinson said. "It doesn't bother me. It makes me realize I'm mortal, but that's kind of good, too." Imagine that: an NBA player who believes he is mortal.

  • Jazz are thinking about bringing Bryon Russell off the bench, even though he has been their leading scorer in preseason and has been, to quote Jerry Sloan, "our best player, because he's been playing with a lot of confidence." Who would start at three? Rookie Scott Padgett or Adam Keefe, with Hornacek at two. Why not start Russell? Because they want him to play both two and three and they want him on the floor at the end of each half. Seems to make sense to Sloan.

    Padgett, by the way, got off to a slow start, but has gotten in better shape and has show he can guard quicker guys at three since getting in shape. And he can really shoot it.

  • You have to feel for the Grizzlies, the NBA's lame duck team. (The transfer of the franchise to Wal Mart billionaire Bill Laurie is expected to be approved Friday by the NBA's Board of Governors, and nobody in the league really believes Laurie is going to leave the team in Vancouver when he owns the Kiel Center, in St. Louis, and also the NHL's Blues). GM Stu Jackson signs veteran power forward Grant Long to be the young team's veteran influence, and now he will be lost four to six weeks with a serious sprain of his left knee, suffered Tuesday in Denver.

  • The free throw watch: Shaquille O'Neal missed 24 of his first 31 free throws in the preseason and Phil Jackson turned him over to Tex Winter for re-education. "He doesn't have a rhythm when he's on the line," Jackson said. "And it's all about finding a rhythm and the timing of being into the shot. And when he gets that, he starts to focus on it, then he's OK. His mechanics aren't good, his trajectory isn't good, but if he could just find a rhythm, that might help him a little bit. But he's not there yet."

    O'Neal at least understands the significance of the gaping hole in his game. "I realize down the stretch everybody's going to put me on the line," he said. "I realize if we want to go all the way, it's going to be in my hands. I like that type of pressure."

    We'll see how much he likes it ...

  • Meanwhile, the Kings, who made just 68.3 percent of their free-throw attempts last season, shot 81.1 percent from the line through their first four preseason games. Sacramento is unlikely to stay above 80 percent as games accumulate, but coach Rick Adelman is convinced that his squad will shoot better from the line this season. And Chris Webber, who last season was under 50 percent at the line, made all five in his first preseason game.

  • The Nuggets have been as disappointing as any team in the preseason, especially to veteran Bryant Stith, the team captain and the longest tenured Nugget. He has seen this all before, and he is frightened by the 1-6 preseason record and the lack of effort in some games. The real problem, he said, is that a revamped lineup hasn't had a chance to develop any chemistry because star forward Antonio McDyess has played only 23 minutes because of illness and injury. "I'm very concerned," Stith said. "All I have to draw from is experience, and I remember four years ago, we were 6-2 in the preseason and playing very well, but our starting point guard was Eric Murdock. We made a change the last week of preseason to Mark Jackson -- and rightfully so. But he hadn't played at all in preseason and we never recovered the entire season. This reminds me so much of that experience that it's scary."

    Mike Monroe, who covers the NBA for the Denver Post, writes a Western Conference column for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him at monroe128@go.com

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