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Friday, January 7
War Room: Cowboys at Vikings


Dallas offense vs. Minnesota defense
COWBOYS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 6
Pass 25
Tot. Yds. 18
Scoring 11
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 24
   
VIKINGS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 14
vs. Pass 30
Total yds. allowed 27
# of Ints. 12
# of Sacks 46
Turnover differential -10
Coming off a strong finale against the Giants, QB Troy Aikman must find a rhythm and get the ball out quickly to prevent the Vikings from defending what has become a rather vanilla offensive game plan.

Aikman, who was knocked out of the last game between these teams with a concussion, will normally direct a conventional two-receiver, two-running back set when they go to the air. Dallas' lack of depth at receiver will limit what they will be able to do in terms of formations and personnel groupings, making them that much easier to defend.

One positive for the Cowboys heading into Sunday's game is the recent emergence of rookie WR Jason Tucker, who has caught 11 passes for 250 yards in the past two games. Tucker, who broke training camp as the No. 6 receiver on the roster, has taken advantage of opposing defenses when they roll coverage to the side of WR Rocket Ismail.

Dallas head coach Chan Gailey is confident that his team can hit some big plays in the passing game against an extremely inexperienced Viking secondary. With rookie DC Kenny Wright, untested FS Anthony Bass and converted wide receiver Robert Tate in the nickel package, Minnesota has been tentative to use the blitz to create pressure. Luckily for the Vikings, their front four has come on strong the past month and should provide an ample rush without help from the back-seven. Minnesota's defensive line accounted for six of the team's season-high seven sacks last week but this group is undersized and could easily be engulfed by Dallas' massive front.

The one thing Dallas' offense has done consistently well all season is run the football and the Cowboy's appear to peaking in this area at the right time. Smith has rolled up three straight 100-yard games and the offensive line seems to be responding to the team's more aggressive approach on the ground. Offensive line coach Hudson Houck's unit didn't respond to a finesse-style early in the season and the new philosophy should help them attack the smallish interior, especially if MLB Ed McDaniel sits out with a knee injury.

Before leaving the Week 9 contest with a broken hand, Smith was on his way to a career-best performance (13 att., 140 yds., 2 TD) and was running through the arm tackles of Minnesota defenders. Dallas even excelled after he left the game, finishing with 205 yards rushing on a staggering 8.5 per carry. If the Vikings don't do a better job of playing sound, fundamental defense, Dallas will be able to utilize a ball-control scheme that will take the home crowd out of the game.

Minnesota offense vs. Dallas defense
VIKINGS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 14
Pass 4
Tot. Yds. 3
Scoring 5
Int's allowed 21
Sacks allowed 43
   
COWBOYS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 6
vs. Pass 13
Total yds. allowed 8
# of Ints. 24
# of Sacks 35
Turnover differential +10
The Cowboys stumble into this one with some key members of their secondary in bad shape. Starting DC Kevin Smith missed his fifth game in six weeks and nickel back Kevin Mathis missed his third straight last week against the Giants. While both appear close to seeing the field, the pair will be picked on constantly by the Vikings' explosive passing game.

Dallas' last few opponents have pressured them with three-receiver sets but look for Minnesota to take it one step further on Sunday when offensive coordinator Ray Sherman goes with four wides. Now that the offensive line doesn't require much help from TE Andrew Glover in pass protection, they are using multiple-receiver sets more liberally than they did in the beginning of the year.

The Vikings are one of the only teams in the league that have the personnel to effectively attack a depleted secondary, as they attempted to do last week against the Lions. An off game by QB Jeff George (14-of-24, 2 INT) kept it competitive but he had numerous opportunities to break the game wide open in the second half. Despite his struggles, George did connect with WR Randy Moss four times in the first half for 147 yards, including bombs of 53 and 67 yards, as the Lions inexplicably left their corners in man coverage against Moss early in the game before reverting back to predominantly zone looks after halftime.

If the Cowboys are forced to go with inexperienced players such as Duane Hawthorne, look for them to play a deep zone and rely heavily upon the speed of their linebackers to get enough depth to prevent crossing routes by WR Cris Carter.

The one wild card that Dallas will rely on is a healthy Deion Sanders, who played the Week 9 game at far less than 100 percent. With Sanders locked in single coverage on either Moss or Carter, it will allow Dallas to focus on the intermediate sideline routes that gave them problems in the last meeting in the Metrodome.

One weapon that they Vikings didn't have in their earlier matchup against the Cowboys was 1,000-yard rusher RB Robert Smith. Without Smith in the lineup, Dallas faced a one-dimensional running attack with the between-the-tackles style of RB Leroy Hoard, who banged his way for over four yards per carry. Smith will present a challenge with his speed and ability to get to the corner.

Rookie DE Ebenezer Ekuban has held up well in Greg Ellis' spot the past few weeks, but he'll need a monster effort on Sunday against the run. Dallas' run defense allowed 90.3 yards per game in the regular season and they haven't faced a quality runner since their Week 15 when Curtis Martin rolled up 113 yards on 26 carries.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category MIN DAL
Punt return avg. 21 7
Kickoff return avg. 9 5
Opp. punt return avg. 13 23
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 10 9
Time of possession 21 4
Minnesota caught a break the last time these two teams met because an injury to PR Deion Sanders limited him solely to the defensive side of the ball. Sanders finished sixth in the league with a 11.6 punt return average this season and he'll pose more problems than Jeff Ogden did in the Week 9 contest. The Vikings' return teams have been very inconsistent since David Palmer was lost at midseason but Robert Tate appears to be the answer on kickoffs. Tate broke free for returns of 47 and 37 yards last week against the Lions but he'll face an excellent coverage unit on Sunday. Minnesota P Mitch Berger finished second in the league this season with a 45.5 gross average but Dallas' Toby Gowin wasn't far behind at 43.2 (ranked seventh). Gowin needs a huge day in order to win the battle of field position against the high-powered Vikings offense. If the game remains close, the battle of veteran place-kickers will be an interesting one. Minnesota's Gary Anderson has the advantage over Eddie Murray because he is much more capable from beyond 40 yards.

Key matchups
  • Minnesota LOT Todd Stuessie vs. Dallas RDE Kavika Pittman
    In their previous Monday night matchup, Stuessie had one of his most embarrassing efforts of the season. Pittman used his speed to beat Stuessie upfield on a couple of occasions and definitely has the psychological edge in this batte. Stuessie will have to hold his own in order for RB Robert Smith to find room outside.

  • Dallas LOT Flozell Adams vs. Minnesota RDE Chris Doleman
    The Cowboys will be looking for some pay back on Sunday because of the cheap shot to the groin that Adams took in the first meeting. Doleman wasn't in playing shape when these teams squared off earlier in the year but that won't be the case in this one. Minnesota's aging sackman is playing some of his best football in years.

  • Dallas RB Emmitt Smith vs. Minnesota DL John Randle
    Smith wants nothing more than to play the entire game at the pace he started the last game. Before he broke his hand in the first half of their last meeting, Smith was poised to have one the greatest games of his career. The Vikings will move Randle around to find mismatches up front.

    Minnesota will win if...
  • They minimize mistakes in the red zone. Minnesota leads the league in turnovers inside the 20 and QB George threw what could have been a costly interception near the goal line last Sunday against Detroit. Dallas' speedy linebacker corps will pose problems when Minnesota's offense is packed in and has to execute in the short passing game.

  • They can stop the run with their front four and MLB McDaniel. If the guys up front can do the job, the Vikings won't be forced to use SS Robert Griffith near the line of scrimmage to stop the run. Minnesota predominantly used their nickel unit last week versus Detroit but they weren't facing a runner with Smith's ability. McDaniel sprained his knee last week but is optimistic about his return. Reserve Rob Holmberg played well in relief against the Lions and the coaching staff is confident he can get the job done.

  • Offensive coordinator Ray Sherman can get his receivers in positive matchups. WRs Randy Moss and Cris Carter have done great damage the past couple of years against Dallas when they were locked into single coverage. Look for Sherman to use plenty of formation variation and motion to get these two guys away from DC Deion Sanders.

    Dallas will win if...

  • They establish the run early. In the last meeting at the Metrodome, it was a tale to two halves for both teams. The Cowboys weren't the same after RB Smith left the game late in the first half. If they can get him on track again this week, Smith could be the difference. Minnesota's linebackers are playing the run much more aggressively than they did in the last meeting and will make it hard for Smith to bounce outside.

  • The defense takes away one dimension of the Vikings' offense. Dallas has little chance of pulling out the road upset if Minnesota establishes balance on the offensive side of the ball. With their running game finally clicking, it has made the play-action passing game virtually impossible to defend. Expect the Cowboys' front seven to load up against the run with their safeties positioned deep.

  • QB Aikman plays his best game of the season. In what has been a up-and-down season, Dallas head coach Chan Gailey is hoping Aikman saved his best for last. With young, marginal talent at receiver, Aikman needs to be especially sharp against Minnesota's maligned secondary. Vikings' defensive coordinator Foge Fazio needs to come up with an answer in the secondary after his backfield was scorched by a run-less Lions offense.

    The War Room edge
    The Cowboys were dominating in the Week 9 Monday night matchup before Emmitt Smith left the game with a broken hand. His absence left Dallas with a one-dimensional attack and QB Troy Aikman simply didn't have enough weapons in the passing game to get the job done. The same will be the case this week if Minnesota takes away the running game. The Vikings' defense has played with much more emotion the past month and appears ready to make a playoff run. Look for DT John Randle & Co. to take over this game early and give QB Jeff George and the offense plenty of opportunities to ignite the Metrodome crowd.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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