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Thursday, December 9
War Room: Cardinals at Redskins


Arizona offense vs. Washington defense
CARDINALS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 28
Pass 29
Tot. Yds. 29
Scoring 30
Int's allowed 21
Sacks allowed 34
   
REDSKINS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 26
vs. Pass 30
Total yds. allowed 31
# of Ints. 17
# of Sacks 31
Turnover differential +2
The Cardinals had one of their worst offensive outputs in recent memory against Philadelphia in the first half of their game last week, totaling only 56-yards of total offense. The Cardinal running game, which had averaged 110 yards per game over the previous three weeks, evaporated against one of the most undersized front fours in the NFL.

The Cardinals need to get back to the run this week, both to keep the talented Redskin offense off the field and to take the pressure off QB Jake Plummer, who is much more productive when Arizona is effective running the football. To do so against a struggling Redskin defense, the Cards must employ the simplified blocking schemes the team has used over the last few weeks, utilizing drive blocking and a size and strength advantage at both tackle positions. RBs Adrian Murrell and Michael Pittman have to hit the holes without dancing at the LOS and get into a Redskin back seven that is one of the more suspect tackling units in the league.

The Redskin defense must approach this week's game with the intent of stopping Cardinal QB Plummer. With Arizona's three-wideout attack, Plummer will be looking to unload the ball quickly and this means that first and foremost, the Redskins have to practice sound tackling.

All of the Cardinal WRs have good athletic ability, particularly Moore and Boston, and will make you pay if you miss tackles. Washington's corners, Champ Bailey and Darrell Green also need to stop jumping the short routes and getting burned deep. Bailey was victimized last week, and this is an aspect of the rookie's game that needs to drastically improve.

The play of the Redskins defensive line continues to improve on a weekly basis, and last week against the Lions, this group accounted for five sacks. Against an inexperienced Arizona offensive line, strong play of this unit could be the difference in what promises to be a close game.

To slow the Cardinal running attack, the Redskin defensive tackles, Dana Stubblefield and Dan Wilkinson, need to create a pile at the point of attack, forcing the Cardinal runners outside where the team's quick linebackers can make tackles.

LOLB Shawn Barber is one of the best athletes on the team, and has the AA to run down the football anywhere on the field, but he's playing with a shoulder sprain, and could be a liability if his health doesn't improve this week.

Washington offense vs. Arizona defense
REDSKINS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 4
Pass 8
Tot. Yds. 4
Scoring 2
Int's allowed 11
Sacks allowed 19
   
CARDINALS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 30
vs. Pass 7
Total yds. allowed 17
# of Ints. 12
# of Sacks 27
Turnover differential -7
The Redskins will not find any easy yards against a Cardinal defense that has continuously improved over the last four weeks. The Redskins need injured LOG Keith Simms to get healthy, as the veteran Simms is a key player on the Redskin offensive line.

Arizona will undoubtedly blitz Redskin QB Brad Johnson, who was ineffective last week while getting tossed around by an aggressive Lion front seven. When Johnson is hit a lot or forced to throw on the run, he tends to hurry his throws and not go through his progressions the way he normally would.

Washington needs to get back to basics by giving the ball to RB Stephen Davis. Davis is averaging 4.8 per carry and leads the NFL with 16 touchdowns. When Davis is effective running the football, the Redskins are one of the best offensive units in the NFL. Davis draws opposing linebackers closer to the LOS, creating space on the underneath routes for WR Albert Connell, TE Stephen Davis and FB Larry Centers.

When Johnson can throw to a full compliment of receivers, the Skins are a much better football team.

LOT Andy Heck will need to have a good game this week against Arizona RDE Simeon Rice, who leads the NFL with 12 + sacks. Heck has the feet and hands to contain Rice in pass protection, but does not have the size and strength to dominate him in the running the game the way many tackles would.

The Cardinal defense has been successful over the past four weeks for several reasons. First, quality play by an underrated defensive line; and second, a talented secondary that always seems to come-up with a big play when the team needs one.

The secondary and the line share a symbiotic relationship in that the pressure that the line is generating up front is forcing opposing QBs to hurry their passes into the talented, playmaking secondary. RDE Simeon Rice has been more effective this season, largely because the Cardinals have allowed him to line-up further outside and use his speed to get around opposing tackles and get to the quarterback.

Against the Redskins, the Cardinals face some match-up problems, particularly if Washington runs the ball a lot. With two undersized DEs, Arizona is susceptible to off-tackle and outside running plays. To counteract this, the Cardinal DTs must create a pile in the middle of the field, take away the Washington inside running game entirely, and free-up the linebackers to help support the DEs on the outside.

In passing situations, the Cardinals have to get to Johnson and force him to throw on the run. When the Cardinal front seven creates chaos, it frees up the likes of LDC Aeneas Williams and FS Kwamie Lassiter to make plays. Williams will be matched up with the Redskins' Westbrook for much of the day, and his success against Westbrook will dictate how successful the Cardinals will be defensively.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category ARI WAS
Punt return avg. 13 21
Kickoff return avg. 9 20
Opp. punt return avg. 3 29
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 11 23
Time of possession 28 23
The Redskin punt and kick-off coverage units have been abysmal throughout the 1999 season. Only four minutes after Washington KR James Thrash returned a kick-off 95 yards for a touchdown, the Skins coverage units gave back the score by surrendering a 68-yard punt return to Detroit PR Desmond Howard. Washington K Brett Conway has a great leg, but has been inconsistent all season, and needs to gain his teammates confidence as the 'Skins approach the stretch run.

Key matchups
  • Cards QB Jake Plummer vs. Redskins defensive coordinator Mike Nolan
    Plummer is starting to get back into the groove, and Nolan must figure out a way to force him to throw the ball early and make bad decisions. The key is to not let Plummer stay in the game into the fourth quarter where he can pull it out with a last-minute scramble. The Redskins must hit him and force him to release the ball early.

  • Redskins WRs Michael Westbrook and Albert Connell vs. Cardinals DCs Aeneas Williams and Tom Knight
    The Redskin WRs play with a lot of confidence and love to go vertical in the passing game. The Cardinals are not great on the deep ball, and if Washington has any success early in the run game, they could easily get fooled on a play-action fake by Brad Johnson.

  • Redskins DCs Champ Bailey and Darrell Green vs. Cards WRs Rob Moore and Frank Sanders
    The Redskins love to put their corners on an island with single coverage matchups, and it is imperative that the Cardinal OL picks up the blitz and Plummer makes Washington pay for their defensive scheme. Look for them to especially attack Green to try to create some big plays.

    Arizona will win if...
  • QB Jake Plummer can utilize his 3-WR sets. Entering the 1999 season, it looked like Arizona would really be able to spread the field in their passing formation, but without Jake Plummer, who missed several weeks with injuries, they have not been able to spread the field and as a result, they are very predictable on offense. With Plummer back in the lineup, they must open up the offense and force the Redskins' defense into nickel and dime situations.

  • Their defense can put pressure on Redskin QB Brad Johnson and take the pressure off their corners. The Cardinals are struggling at the corner position right now and they must get some help from their front-seven. If the pressure doesn't come and Johnson has time to throw the football, he will pick a defense apart that leaves its corners on an island.

  • They can avoid early big plays by the Redskins offense. The Redskins love to attack early and force the opposition to play catchup football. Arizona must weather the storm and keep this game basically even at halftime, where Jake Plummer has a chance to take the game over in the second half. The Cardinals do not want to get into an early offensive shoot-out.

    Washington will win if...

  • They don't let Cardinal QB Jake Plummer get hot. Plummer is the type of QB who can take over a game and the Redskins must put a lot of pressure on him and force him to make bad decisions and errant throws. If he has time to move around the pocket and create on the run, he will not only build his confidence, but he will put up big numbers.

  • They get offensive balance and utilize the run game. As good as the Redskins are in the passing game, they are at their best when they run the ball effectively with Stephen Davis. An early ground game will force the Cardinals to commit seven and eight defenders to the run, which will leave their corners on an island, and this is a matchup that the Redskins can exploit...It also gives QB Brad Johnson a lot of playaction opportunities later in the game.

  • They jump on the Cardinals early. The Cardinals are playing with a lot of confidence, and the best way to burst their bubble is to jump out to an early lead and make them play catchup football. If the Redskins let them hang around in this game, they will build their confidence and it could get tough for Washington in the fourth quarter.

    The War Room edge
    This is a tough game to predict because we are really not sure if Arizona is that good, or if they simply have been playing poor teams in the last few weeks. Conversely, the Redskins continue to be very explosive, but also ridiculously inconsistent. The return of Cardinal QB Jake Plummer certainly gives their offense a lift, but they have no run game. On paper, Washington should dominate at home, especially on offense, but this is a Redskins team that doesn't play with any sense of urgency, and just when you begin to like them, they disappoint you. It is tempting to pick the Cardinals in this game, but without a run game it is unlikely that they can get any offensive balance, and this is probably a week that the Redskins offense is "on". Look for Washington to score early and turn this game into an offensive shoot-out, which certainly favors the Redskins.

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