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Thursday, December 9
War Room: Falcons at 49ers


Atlanta offense vs. San Francisco defense
FALCONS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 29
Pass 15
Tot. Yds. 24
Scoring 28
Int's allowed 15
Sacks allowed 42
   
49ERS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 23
vs. Pass 28
Total yds. allowed 29
# of Ints. 11
# of Sacks 23
Turnover differential -11
In last week's decisive win over New Orleans, Atlanta QB Chris Chandler finally was reminded of how it feels to operate an offense with a legitimate running game. With Byron Hanspard out of the mix, RB Ken Oxendine is running with increased confidence and finally appears ready to be the workhorse that this offense has missed all season. Against a banged up Saints defense and behind bruising FB Bob Christian, Oxendine carried 19 times for 85 yards and a touchdown.

In cold and soggy conditions last week at Cincinnati, the Niners had trouble bringing down RB Corey Dillon, who rolled up 133 yards on 25 carries. Although they would like to blame the weather for their troubles, the Niners' sloppy tackling was simply case of a failure to break down on the ball carrier.

If the Falcons can run the ball successfully, look for a road win. Coach Dan Reeves' club is 3-0 when they rush for over 100 yards.

With the run game clicking, Chandler enjoyed the luxury of play-action for the first time all year. WR Tim Dwight, who was on the receiving end of a 48-yard touchdown last week, didn't return after halftime after because of a knee injury and his status for this week is still questionable. If Dwight and starting TE O.J. Santiago can't go, it will severely hamper the Falcons from a play-calling perspective because their options at receiver are very limited.

Atlanta will need WR's Terrence Mathis and Bryan Still to pick up the slack against the Niners' inviting secondary. Aside from DT Bryant Young's pair of sacks, San Francisco's sagging pass rush produced no pressure on Cincinnati QB Jeff Blake last week, allowing the streaky passer to throw for 334 yards and four touchdowns.

The Niners, especially smurf DC Darnell Walker, could not contend with the Bengals' tall receivers on the deep ball but the good news this week is that the Falcons have only one receiver listed over 5-11.

Defensive coordinator Jim Mora Jr.'s unit's susceptibility to the big play is underscored by their 7.29 yards allowed per completion. A startling number considering it's over a yard more than the league average.

Look for the Falcons to utilize the screen game more this week than they have in the past. Oxendine hasn't been used much in a receiving role but he should be able to do some damage against a Niners linebacker corps that allowed Dillon to chew up 77 yards out of the flat.

San Francisco offense vs. Atlanta defense
49ERS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 13
Pass 23
Tot. Yds. 18
Scoring 26
Int's allowed 17
Sacks allowed 29
   
FALCONS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 29
vs. Pass 5
Total yds. allowed 14
# of Ints. 10
# of Sacks 34
Turnover differential -12
San Francisco QB Jeff Garcia threw for the sixth highest yardage total (437 yards) in the team's rich history last week against the Bengals but his career effort was nothing more than an encouraging sign for this team.

Garcia's big day was a result of the offensive line's best game of the season. The Niners held the Bengals without a sack last week but they will have a tough time duplicating that feat on Sunday against a Falcons defense that rang up a season-high seven sacks last week.

Atlanta defensive coordinator Rich Brooks' crew was able to get pressure last week through a number of inside blitzes by MLB Jesse Tuggle and OLB Keith Brooking. The Niners interior line must hold up well without much help from FB Fred Beasley because he will have to concern himself primarily with DE's Chuck Smith and Lester Archambeau, who registered three sacks against the Saints.

San Francisco's passing game was more efficient last week because it was based on short drops that allowed Garcia to set up quick and find a rhythm. Look for more of the same against a Falcon secondary that is allowing just 179.6 yards per game through the air.

The key matchup to watch will be WR Jerry Rice working against DC Ray Buchanan, who returned one of his two interceptions last week for a touchdown. Rice and Terrell Owens had some success working fade and streak routes against the Bengals' shaky secondary that, like Atlanta, has trouble against the deep ball.

If they have trouble containing the pass rush early, expect offensive coordinator Marty Mohrninweg to work RB Charlie Garner out of the backfield on screens and delays over the middle in hopes of catching Tuggle out of position on the blitz.

The Niners have a chance of putting an end to their eight-game losing streak if they can establish Garner on the ground and sustain his presence for the entire game. Garner, the team's lone bright spot on offense all season, had 91 yards on 18 carries (5.1 avg.) last week before they were forced to abandon the run in the third quarter.

Even in their win over the Saints, Brooks' unit had trouble stopping the run, allowing Wilmont Perry & Co. to run for 149 yards on 26 attempts. The Falcons are giving up 128.3 yards per game on the ground and could have real trouble with the bruising combination of Garner and Beasley.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category ATL SF
Punt return avg. 25 31
Kickoff return avg. 25 16
Opp. punt return avg. 1 12
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 27 31
Time of possession 26 22
Like their defense, the Niners' special teams performed well below their capability in last week's loss to Cincinnati. After showing signs of improvement over the past month, San Francisco struggled badly in nearly every facet of special teams. PR Mark Harris had trouble in his first full game in place of R.W. McQuarters, costing the team points with a muffed punt deep in their own territory. The injury to RS Tim Dwight could have a huge impact on the Falcons' return units on Sunday. If Dwight can't go, look for Winslow Oliver to get the call. Oliver, who is averaging 20.2 on 11 kickoff returns, could have a big day against a Niner coverage team that gave up a 72-yard return to Cincy's Tremain Mack last Sunday. If this one remains close, the edge has to go to San Francisco PK Wade Richey over Atlanta's Morten Anderson. Although he did shank an extra point a week ago, Richey will have an easier time negotiating the strong winds at 3Com Park.

Key matchups
  • Atlanta FB Bob Christian vs. San Francisco LB corps
    The Falcons have not run the ball well, but it's through no fault of Christian. The one thing that San Francisco can do defensively is stop the run, which could be tough to do with Christian leading the way.

  • Atlanta WR Tim Dwight vs. San Francisco FS Lance Schulters
    Dwight is the only Falcon with enough speed to beat the Niners deep, and Schulters must provide quick help to his struggling backfield mates. Dwight and the Falcons could be in for their biggest game of the season.

  • San Francisco WR Jerry Rice vs. Atlanta DC Ray Buchanan
    Rice registered his first 100-yard outing in 13 games last week against the Bengals. Buchanan is also coming off a big game and will be tested vertically by QB Garcia.

    Atlanta will win if...
  • The defense does a good job of tackling RB Garner. If they contain Garner, the Niners will have a hard time winning with a one-dimensional passing attack. There is a reason Garner ranks among league leaders in yards per carry. For a slasher, Garner is tough to bring down.

  • The cornerbacks hold up in man coverage. San Francisco's three-receiver set will put the onus on Atlanta's nickel and dime backs. FS Robinson must do a better job playing centerfield, but he could once again get some needed help from the pass rush.

  • They are efficient in the red zone. The normally careful QB Chandler had some trouble inside the 20 last week against the Saints. Chandler should rebound this week against a Niner team that has trouble putting pressure on the passer.

    San Francisco will win if...

  • They prevent big plays in the passing game. The Falcons don't have the weapons that the Niners faced last week, but Mathis and Dwight can do damage if not taken seriously. Defensive coordinator Jim Mora Jr. simply can't find the combination at cornerback.

  • They run the ball well on first down. Garner and Beasley need to do the job on early downs to keep Garcia out of too many third-and-long situations. The Falcons recorded seven sacks last week and will tee off on Garcia if the threat of a ground attack isn't present.

  • The special teams rebound after a miserable performance against Cincinnati. Missed extra points. Muffed punts. Penalties. You name it, the Niners screwed it up against the Bengals. Cincinnati even came close to returning a kick for a score. What will Dwight do to these hapless units?

    The War Room edge
    The Niners executed much better on offense last week, but the Falcons' secondary doesn't have the holes that the Bengals' did. Niners WR Jerry Rice will have a difficult time separating from stellar DC Ray Buchanan. Atlanta QB Chris Chandler will have a huge day against San Francisco's non-existent pass rush. Look for the Falcons to make Steve Mariucci's nightmare season even worse.

    The War RoomMaterial from The War Room.
    Visit their web site at http://www.nflwarroom.com


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