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Thursday, December 9
War Room: Dolphins at Jets


Miami offense vs. New York defense
DOLPHINS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 23
Pass 19
Tot. Yds. 22
Scoring 13
Int's allowed 14
Sacks allowed 30
   
JETS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 18
vs. Pass 23
Total yds. allowed 23
# of Ints. 15
# of Sacks 22
Turnover differential +13
The Dolphins need to be patient on offense. The popular thinking is to attack a Jets' secondary that allowed 341 passing yards last week to the New York Giants. Miami is also relatively sure they can protect QB Dan Marino against a Jets' defense that has notched a league-low 22 sacks the entire season.

All of this points to Miami coming out throwing the ball to win. However, Miami needs to get back to the formula that was winning them football games with Marino out of the lineup. It was no coincidence that Miami went 5-1 with Damon Huard behind center. They were running the ball more, chewing time off the clock and winning the field position battle with excellent defensive play.

The Dolphins came away from last weeks' loss to the Colts with a feeling of confidence because they found a lot out about their offensive scheme, and seem to have turned to a three-receiver set as their base formation. The three-receiver set forces defenses to back out of the eight-men in the box look that was giving Miami lots of trouble when running the ball and in pass protection.

The Jets are going to look to blitz a lot on Sunday, but they are going to have to do so with a seven-man front. Defensive coordinator Bill Belichick will undoubtedly take a lot out of last weeks' loss against the Giants, as well as the Miami loss to the Colts, when he draws up his defensive scheme. The Jets' secondary was annihilated last week because of the single-man coverage that they played against the Giant's bigger receivers.

Marino, throughout his career, has had tremendous success against zone coverage, which means Belichick will play a lot of man/zone coverage. This will feature an aggressive approach by the cornerbacks, pressing the Dolphin receivers at the line of scrimmage. They will be able to bite on a lot of first moves, knowing that they have help from their safeties if they get caught jumping the receivers' first move.

This entire scheme means that the Jets are going to play an aggressive front, but will be forced to do so without enough personnel. The Dolphins will find success running the football, but need to avoid a lot of third-and-long situations, where Marino is forced to make something happen. Marino proved last week that he is still capable of throwing the ball with great success, but the team also learned that running the ball successfully equates into victory.

New York offense vs. Miami defense
JETS OFFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
Run 7
Pass 28
Tot. Yds. 25
Scoring 24
Int's allowed 13
Sacks allowed 34
   
DOLPHINS DEFENSE
Ranking in the NFL:
vs. Run 12
vs. Pass 6
Total yds. allowed 5
# of Ints. 18
# of Sacks 30
Turnover differential +2
The Jets offense seemed to get away from their game plan last week when the Giants stuffed the run early. Instead of showing patience on offense, the Jets went to the air and it took away from what has kept the Jets in games throughout the season.

Miami is going to have to game plan similar to the Giants' defensive system of a week ago. The Dolphins were also a bit out of character last week, playing softer in coverage and less aggressive up front. Expect two different game plans this week, as the Dolphins and Jets will look to return to the backbone of their respective offensive and defensive schemes.

The Jets need to establish the run, not only to neutralize Miami's speed on defense, but also to limit turnovers and slow down the pace of the game. QB Ray Lucas has done an extraordinary job of taking over this team midway through the season, not throwing an interception in his last 92 attempts, but he is simply not equipped to throw the ball over 30 times a game yet in his young career.

The Dolphins realize that the Jets need to run the ball, which means that they will game plan for just that. The Dolphins have been extremely successful defensively, mainly because of their corner play. They are used to matching up man-to-man on the outside and using the other nine defenders to stack the middle.

With the benching of CB Terrell Buckley, the team has been forced to a more conservative plan, but if nothing else, the Dolphins learned last week that CB Patrick Surtain can handle himself on an island in coverage.

Miami will revert to a more attacking style up front, using more "44" looks to stop the run. When the Jets look to open it up more on offense, the Dolphins have the luxury of brining in Buckley off the bench as the nickel corner.

The Jets will struggle to do much offensively against the Dolphins. This game is a must-win for Miami, and the defense knows how important its role is on Sunday. Lucas is still going to create second chances in the passing game and he is blessed with an outstanding wideout unit, but Lucas is not at the level necessary to carry the Jets' team throwing the football.

Parcells will avoid getting into a shootout situation as much as possible, but with injuries on the offensive line, and little production in the middle of the field from TE's Eric Green and Fred Baxter, the Jets are going to be put into the compromising situation of having to throw the football on third-and-long too many times for this Dolphin defense not to capitalize.

Special teams
NFL RANK
Category MIA NYJ
Punt return avg. 7 22
Kickoff return avg. 3 4
Opp. punt return avg. 26 14
Opp. kickoff ret. avg. 19 30
Time of possession 7 13
Olindo Mare is still the top field goal kicker in the league, connecting on 31-of-37 for the season, not to mention Sunday's performance where he nailed the game tying kick with under a minute left against the Colts. Tom Hutton has been a weak link for the Dolphins, averaging just 41.6-yards per punt. Miami still has the top all-around return units with Brock Marion averaging 25.2-yards per kickoff return and Nate Jacquet averaging 14.2-yards per punt return.

The Jets kicking game has been sporadic, with John Hall hitting on 16-of-20 for the season. Tom Tupa continues in his excellence, averaging 45.8-yards per punt. Dwight Stone has shown some flash as the Jets' kickoff return man, averaging 25.3-yards per return with a long of 50-yards.

Key matchups
  • New York LT Jumbo Elliott vs. Miami DE Jason Taylor
    This is an interesting matchup, featuring age versus speed. Elliot is sadly overmatched against Taylor on the edge, and will have tremendous trouble in pass protection. However, Elliot is a crafty veteran with excellent strength, and should be able to win the battle in the run game.

  • Miami OGs Mark Dixon and Kevin Donnalley vs. Jets ILBs Bryan Cox and Marvin Jones
    Against a "34" scheme, the most important matchups seem to always be against the inside linebackers that have to be so versatile for the defense. Mixon and Donnalley are going to play without any one head up, meaning that they will have to be more active in the run game and more aware of the blitz in pass pro. Cox has been playing injured the past couple of weeks and seems to be having a difficult time changing direction and playing with good base. This bodes well for the Dolphin offensive line that will work to get out on the linebacker to seal Cox off.

  • New York QB Ray Lucas vs. Miami FS Brock Marion
    Marion is the key read for quarterbacks throwing the ball against Miami's defense. Marion is an extremely active free safety who is often left back playing center field. He will make the decision to cheat to one side in help, and the read is usually to the opposite side where the receiver is left in man-to-man coverage. Lucas has been a big boost for the Jets' offense and has created a lot of second chances, but he is still making inexperienced mistakes, and Marion could have some big pays reading the young quarterbacks' eyes.

    Miami will win if...
  • The defense plays more aggressively. Miami in the last two weeks have been less aggressive on defense and it has shown. The benching of Terrell Buckley is a big reason, because the team now needs more help from its safeties in the deep third. The Dolphins are going to have to put more pressure on the Jets' offensive line. The Jets are going to look to run the football first, and have an inexperienced quarterback behind center. This is the perfect opportunity for the Dolphins to stack up at the line and reestablish their aggressive tempo defensively.

  • WR Tony Martin stretches the Jets' secondary. Martin showed last week how much of a threat he can be in the passing game. He has great deep speed, and even when he is not productive catching the ball, his presence backs the secondary off and opens up room underneath. The Jets secondary was embarrassed last week against a Giant offense that has not thrown for over 300 yards since 1993. This is a perfect opportunity for the Dolphins to take some chances down field off of playaction as well as on 1st and 2nd down to catch them out of position.

  • QB Dan Marino is not asked to win the game. Marino played well in his second game back, but he is still not making all the reads, and his arm is not what it was even in the beginning of this season. The Dolphins are a team equipped to win on defense, and the offense needs to do a better job of holding onto the ball and chewing up time off the clock.

    New York Jets will win if...

  • The offense gets back to establishing the run. Ray Lucas has been exceptional in his role as the starter, but he is not yet capable of throwing the ball 30-plus times to win the game. The Jets were starting to create some offensive production in the middle of the field when they were giving the ball to RB Curtis Martin and relying on the running game to establish the tempo on offense. The Dolphins have excellent speed on defense, and will make Lucas a sitting duck if the Jets are not able to run the ball early in the game.

  • The secondary does a better job of tackling. The Jets' secondary put in one of the poorest tackling performances of any team of the season last week, and against an explosive Dolphin receiving corps, they need to be more sound after the catch. The Jets are going to take some gambles up front, which means the secondary is going to be exposed if they do not deep the play in front of them.

  • TE Eric Green gets more involved in the passing game in the middle of the field. The Jets are getting gutsy performances from their receiving corps, but teams are able to double Chrebet and Johnson most of the time, because the Jets are getting little production from anywhere else. The middle of the field has been open in this offense when the receivers stretch vertically, and the Jets could use some catches from Green in the seam in order to expose the zone and free up receivers as the game goes on.

    The War Room edge
    On paper this looks like a great way to get back on track for the Dolphins, but Bill Parcells has his team thinking AFC East spoiler, and the Dolphins have to travel to hostile Meadowlands Stadium. The Jets are coming off a humiliating loss to their cross-town rivals, the Giants, while the Dolphins are reeling after a loss to their division rivals, the Indianapolis Colts. This game is going to be more of a marathon than a track meet, as both teams are going to look to establish the ground game after getting away from the game plan a week ago. The Dolphins are more balanced and capable on offense, which will translate into victory, but not in impressive fashion. Parcells will have his team prepared and will put them in position to win, but talent will eventually prevail.

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