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Tuesday, January 9
Updated: January 11, 9:46 PM ET
 
Rios, Kuerten top picks to win Australian Open

By MaliVai Washington
Special to ESPN.com

One of the toughest things about playing in Australia is the heat. When it's hot there, you could probably crack an egg and fry it on the Rebound Ace surface. The rubberized surface really holds the heat, which makes the surface seem a little sticky, and that might lead to a few turned ankles. So, when it gets hot and muggy, you can expect conditions to slow down on the court. Experience with the surface and conditions could make a difference for the top men.

Marcelo Rios
Player Mal's Analysis
Marcelo Rios The No. 1 guy in the ATP Champions Race is Marcelo Rios of Chile. He was in the Australian Open final in 1998 and apparently has healed completely from a groin injury that he has had for the past 18 to 24 months. He just won the Qatar Open, so he's playing pretty good tennis.

Gustavo Kuerten
Player Mal's Analysis
Gustavo Kuerten Kuerten ended last year at No. 1 after defeating Pete Sampras in the semifinals of the Masters Cup and Andre Agassi in the final. However, he has never had a lot of success on Rebound Ace and hasn't been past the second round at the Australian Open. Still, you have to expect him to be ready to win at the year's first Grand Slam. If he can get through the first week, then he'll be able to display his skills and show why he reached No. 1.

Marat Safin
Player Mal's Analysis
Marat Safin Ending last year at No. 2, Safin has to be considered a potential winner. But, like Kuerten, he hasn't been successful on Rebound Ace and has failed to advance past the third round of the Australian Open. Safin withdrew from the Colonial Classic earlier this week complaining of an elbow injury, which could affect how he plays and how long he lasts in the first rounds. If he makes it through those early rounds, even struggling at times, he'll let people see why he's one of the best players in the world.

Tommy Haas
Player Mal's Analysis
Tommy Haas A guy like Tommy Haas is a long-shot pick. He has a lot of talent but has never been able to make that jump from the Top 25 into the Top 10 or Top 15. When you start off the year with a victory like the one he just he had in Adelaide, however, it gives you a good shot. He's playing good tennis and he has confidence, and that bodes well for taking the next step.

Andre Agassi
Player Mal's Analysis
Andre Agassi Whenever you talk about a tournament, you can't discount the two big Americans: Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras. As much as they've won in the past, however, they're getting older, with a couple of small injuries. It seems like the best years are behind Agassi, who won the Australian Open last year. Agassi struggled last year, physically with his tennis and mentally with his family. He'll want to get on track this year, but it's tough to repeat at championships. He played good tennis at the Masters Cup at the end of last year, but other than the Grand Slam in January and a semifinal at Wimbledon he struggled. He could get out there at the Australian Open this year and get hot. On his best day, Agassi is better than anyone else, so whenever he is in a tournament he has to be considered a potential champion.

Pete Sampras
Player Mal's Analysis
Pete Sampras Sampras is still a great player, but he has won so much in his career that at some point you have to think a new player will come in. He has the opportunity to win another major, but his best shot will be at Wimbledon. Sampras made the semifinals in Melbourne last year and he has won the Australian Open twice before. He knows how to play on Rebound Ace and win. One of the things that's going to hurt him is that he has only played four matches since the U.S. Open and all of those were at the Masters Cup in Lisbon. He even said at Lisbon that it took him a while to get his game back. He's not playing in a tournament before the Australian Open, so his toughest task there will be to get through that first week and those first few rounds. If he gets through that first week, he can do some pretty big things.





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