Thursday, July 27 No locks, but five who can make the case
	By David Schoenfield ESPN.com More than any other sport, debates rage about which players belong in baseball's Hall of Fame. Frankly, there are no candidates out there who are surefire, no-doubt, why-aren't-they-in Hall of Famers. But here are five top candidates to consider for Cooperstown, not including players not yet eligible: Case study: Cone vs. Hershiser Orel Hershiser retired with a career record of 204 wins, 150 losses and a 3.48 ERA. David Cone, who may be on the verge of retirement if he can't win a game again, is currently at 181 wins, 110 losses and a 3.31 ERA. Are they Hall of Famers? Well, if you assume that pitchers need 300 wins to merit election, then they're obviously not. But, that's not the most logical of arguments, since most pitchers in the Hall don't have 300 wins. But how do Cone and Hershiser stack up as candidates? Well, let's steal a couple of methods Bill James used in his book, "The Politics of Glory." The first of these is called Fibonnacci Win Points. Essentially, this formula helps differentiate between win-loss records. What's a better mark, Sandy Koufax at 165-87, or Orel Hershiser at 204-150? The formula is: a pitcher's wins times his winning percentage, plus his games over .500. Cone scores at 184, slightly better than Hershiser's 172 (Koufax was 186). Are those totals Hall of Fame standards? Well, about 40 percent of pitchers who score between 168 and 206 are in the Hall. Hershiser, of course, is at the bottom end of the spectrum. Cone scored higher, despite fewer wins, due to his excellent .622 career winning percentage (Hershiser is .576). By the way, here are some scores for some other pitchers: Tommy John (217), Jack Morris (214), Doc Gooden (204), Jim Kaat (200), Bert Blyleven (190), Bob Welch (190), Ron Guidry (190), Dennis Martinez (189), Jimmy Key (183). Another test is the Hall of Fame Monitor. It tells us if an active player is on the road to Cooperstown by rewarding points for a bunch of different achievements, both single-season and career. The list is too long to go into here, but if a player scores 100, that means he's likely to go in, while a score of 130 means a surefire Hall of Famer. Cone scores at 102, Hershiser at 88.5. Cone's career achievements can be considered as Hall of Fame-worthy. A final method James devised is a Hall of Fame standards list. This measures career achievements and can be used to compare to the other Hall of Famers. In this method, the average Hall of Famer scores at 50, so a marginal Hall of Famer would score below that. Cone scores at 40, Hershiser at 34. Again, Cone appears to be the better Hall of Fame candidate of the two. -- David Schoenfield 1. Ron Santo Third basemen are the most underrepresented in Cooperstown, with just 10 players (compared to 19 shortstops, 15 second basemen and 21 right fielders, for example). Part of the problem is third base is an offensive position but also a defensive position. That makes it difficult to evaluate third basemen over their careers, since they don't hit like outfielders, but don't field like shortstops. Santo, who played with the Cubs from 1960 through 1973 and one season with the White Sox, was a guy who did both. He hit 342 home runs and drove in 1,331 runs in his 15-year career. He also won five Gold Gloves. When thinking of a Hall of Famer, one consideration is: "Was he the best at his position for a period of several years?" Santo was, making the NL All-Star team nine times. Part of what made Santo a great player were his unappreciated skills, like fielding and drawing walks (he led the NL four times and led the league twice in on-base percentage). According to Total Baseball, he was the best player in the NL in 1964, 1966 and 1967. Santo is no longer on the Baseball Writers' ballot. If he gets in, it will be through the Veterans Committee. 2. Gary Carter Carter was surprisingly far away from getting elected in the last vote, receiving 248 votes, well short of the 375 needed. Many of the arguments for Carter hold true for Santo: he was the premier player at his position from the late 1970s through the mid-'80s, landing on 11 All-Star teams. His career numbers (324 home runs, 1,225 RBI) are very similar to Carlton Fisk, who scooted in without any problems. In fact, Carter was probably regarded as a better player than Fisk during their careers and he certainly enjoyed a higher peak performance. This is signified by his good results in MVP voting. Although he never won, he finished second in 1980 and third in 1986. He also won three Gold Gloves. 3. Goose Gossage Sure, Gossage's saves totals pale to current relievers (both career and season), but the Goose helped pioneer the closer position along with Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter. It's difficult to evaluate relievers (Fingers and Hoyt Wilhelm are the only two currently enshrined), but it seems part of the definition should be: "He was The Man." John Franco is second on the all-time saves list, but was never "The Man." There's no doubt Goose held that title. He was an initimidating presence on the mound with his rocket fastball, making nine All-Star teams. He led his league three times in saves and finished with career totals of 124 wins, 107 losses, a 3.01 ERA and 310 saves. Bruce Sutter, who had more votes in the last election (192-166) may have had a more dominant peak, but Gossage was better for longer. 4. Bill Mazeroski Like Santo, Mazeroski is now off the writers' ballot, hoping enough of his buddies eventually get on the Veterans Committee. Mazeroski wasn't a great hitter, even for a second baseman, but it's not his offense that merits consideration -- it's his defense. No player has ever turned the double play like he did with the Pirates from 1956 through 1972. As Bill James wrote in his book on the Hall of Fame, "The Politics of Glory," Mazeroski's "defensive statistics are probably the best of any player in baseball history, at any position." Essentially, he was the Ozzie Smith of second basemen (without the speed and video highlights). Of course, he also hit one of the most famous home runs in history, his blast that won Game 7 of the 1960 World Series for Pittsburgh. 5. Joe Torre Torre is an interesting case. A terrific player (2,342 hits, .297 career average, nine All-Star teams, 1971 NL MVP) who split his playing days between catching and third base, Torre fell a little short of Hall of Fame standards. However, he's tacked on a long managing career that now includes three World Series titles. He may make it on his managerial totals alone, but if you can combine his two "careers" somehow he seems qualified. David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com		ALSO SEE Basketball: Five who belong in Hall Football: Five who belong in the Hall Hockey: Five who belong in the Hall Baseball: A battle at the border Garber: What is a Hall of Famer? Neyer: It depends on what 'fame' means In-depth: The Hall of Fame debate