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February 6, 2003
The worst of the worst
ESPN The Magazine

The 2002 season included the very good, and the very bad. It was the first season in history in which four teams lost 100 games. It was the first season since 1912 that three teams -- the Devil Rays, Tigers and Royals -- had a winning percentage under .350. Great improvement has not been made. Five teams, if not 10, enter 2003 without a chance to make the playoffs.

The gap between the best and worst teams is baseball's biggest problem. It is, however, nothing new. Take virtually any period in baseball history and you'll find teams that had no hope in February. In the American League in the 1960s, the Indians finished an average of 22½ games out of first place. The Senators and Athletics averaged nearly 33 games out per year.

That, of course, doesn't makes the fans of the Tigers, Royals, Devil Rays or Brewers feel better. Unlike the '60s, there are now four playoff teams per league, and these teams still don't have a chance. Tampa Bay's payroll likely will be between $20-$25 million; the Yankees payroll roughly will be $165 million: that difference is approximately 10 times larger than the highest and lowest payroll in 1990. The game isn't as good when it's an upset -- a term that should be left to football -- when the Tigers win two out of three from the Yankees.

There's little chance of that happening in this coming season. Here are the five (and more) teams who have no chance:

Tigers
They were last in the American League in 2002 in runs scored, home runs and fielding. They drew 363 walks (165 more than Barry Bonds), the fewest in AL history in a season of 162 games, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Their ratio of 2.9 strikeouts for every walk also was the worst in AL history. They traded their leading RBI man (Randall Simon, who walked 13 times), non-tendered their second-leading RBI man and leading run scorer (Robert Fick) and let their save leader (Juan Acevedo, 28) go to free agency, leaving them with a group of relievers who saved five games last year for Detroit.

The immediate future is grim, though moving in the fences at Comerica Park should generate more offense, and slightly more fan interest. So should the hiring of Alan Trammell, one of the greatest Tigers ever, as manager. His job is enormous, but at least the club management understands the problem, and it is gutting the building and starting over.

Royals
Poor Allard Baird. Kansas City's general manager spent the offseason trying to cut payroll from $52 million to around $40 million. Pitchers Paul Byrd, Jeff Suppan and Roberto Hernandez were lost or let go, leaving no pitcher who won more than four games last year as a Royal, and no pitcher who saved more than four games as a Royal. The club tried to sign center fielder Carlos Beltran long term, but he rejected it. He could be traded before the July 31 trading deadline, if not in spring training. Who would want to stay in KC?

There is some hope in the Royals' young pitching, including closer Mike MacDougal, and starters Runelvys Hernandez, Jeremy Affeldt and Kyle Snyder, but by that time those kids develops, Beltran surely will be gone, so will first baseman Mike Sweeney. And if any of those young arms do become stars, the Royals probably won't be able to afford them anyway.

Devil Rays
Finally, some anticipation with this club, even if it's to see how new manager Lou Piniella will react to the first six-game losing streak. Last year, the D-Rays led the league in walks issued, they have no closer (last year they lost 10 games that they led with one or two outs in the ninth inning), they have no one who won more than eight games and their offense is even weaker after trading Randy Winn to the Mariners in exchange for Piniella while also selling Steve Cox to Japan.

The Devil Rays are going to be awful again, but at least Piniella provides hope and a plan. First, it's to upgrade their defense; Rey Ordonez is their new shortstop, they're trying to sign first baseman Travis Lee. They've brought in a couple of veterans (Marlon Anderson) to push some of the kids. They're planning to play more kids; Rocco Baldelli could be the center fielder on Opening Day. There is plenty of depth in the system in pitching and outfielders. Someday, an outfield of Carl Crawford, Baldelli and Josh Hamilton could be fun to watch. This year, the D-Rays will be bad, but with Piniella, not boring.

Brewers
At least they're not trying to fool anyone this year. In their ad campaigns, the Brewers basically are acknowledging that they're not going to the playoffs, but they'll play hard. New management (club president Ulice Payne, GM Doug Melvin and manager Ned Yost) will be clear of all but $16 million in salary after this season, allowing Melvin to start rebuilding without cumbersome contracts.

Until then, it's going to be a struggle in Milwaukee. The Brewers were the lowest scoring team in the NL (627 runs), and their pitchers allowed the most walks (666). Attendance dropped by more than 800,000. They've gone 10 years without a winning season. This year will make 11, but maybe the streak will end at 12 or 13.

Pirates
They are tied for fifth with several other teams, including the Padres, Rockies, Indians, Orioles and Blue Jays. The Pirates went from 62 to 72 wins last year; another major jump is unlikely, not without a center fielder, and with an offense that scored the second fewest runs (641) in the NL, and batted only .244.

Still, GM Dave Littlefield has long-term vision, beginning with quality young pitching (Kris Benson, Josh Fogg and Kip Wells) and a growing farm system. Several of these teams have plans in place, but with the finances of the game the way they are, following those plans gets more and more difficult every year.

Tim Kurkjian is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine and a regular contributor to Baseball Tonight. E-mail tim.kurkjian@espnmag.com.



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