Like a patriotic lottery winner, the brain trust of Chasing the Pennant will continue to show up for work despite having revealed the best tip of a mind-boggling first round. We won't promise not to brag, however.

	The Braves had an easier time than Randy Johnson and the D-Backs, but their number could be up.

A week ago, we did more than just hint at the Atlanta Braves' upset of the top-seeded Houston Astros. We screamed it, advising readers to "take the Braves, even without the points."

This week we offer a much more guarded message: Stay aboard the Braves' bandwagon at your own risk.

We loved Atlanta over Houston for a couple of reasons. The biggest was that the Braves' pitching was lined up and ready to go. The other was that a funk had descended upon the Astros down the stretch, in part because of an injury to young ace Roy Oswalt.

Those same basic conditions are in place for the championship series. Bobby Cox has Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Burkett rested and ready to face the Arizona Diamondbacks, who needed a show of force from Curt Schilling on Sunday to get past St. Louis in the first round. But this isn't as simple to forecast.

The funk over the Diamondbacks is in the vicinity of the bat rack. Hitters get hot and cold all the time, so we're not going to read too much into Bob Brenly's team scoring only 10 runs in the five games against St. Louis' deep staff.

There's no doubt that the Braves were rooting for the Cardinals in Game 4 of their series against the Snakes. It is a major advantage for them that Schilling, who has emerged as a bigger October force than Randy Johnson, can't work until Game 3 of the NLCS. But history says not to read too much into that advantage.

In the previous seven years that the majors have used a three-tiered postseason format, 11 teams swept first-round series. Excluding the two championship series when both teams advanced after sweeps (Atlanta-St. Louis in '96 and Florida-Atlanta in '97), the teams that swept are a surprising 3-4 in series against teams that were extended.

A year ago, both the Mariners and Cardinals rolled into their respective championship series after first-round sweeps. Neither, you will recall, made it to the World Series.

But seven years isn't a long time to study any trend. So let's go back to the 16 years that the championship series used a best-of-five format. Including that strike-created divisional series in 1981, there were 14 sweeps. Three times both teams advanced on sweeps. But the eight times when a subsequent series was played between one team that had swept and another that had not, the teams went 4-4.

So that's a 7-8 record for teams coming off sweeps. Include Atlanta's victory over Cleveland in the 1995 World Series after a championship series sweep of Cincinnati, and the all-time playoff record of teams entering one series after a sweep in another climbs to 8-8.

On the flip side, what's the disadvantage of teams that have been extended to the maximum distance, as were the Diamondbacks? Historically it has been no disadvantage at all.

In four championship series played after five-game matchups in the first round, the teams being extended are 2-2. That includes the Yankees' victory over Seattle last year. Expanding the study to include the World Series in the years before the LCS went to best-of-seven, the series record for teams that were pushed to the full five games improves to 7-5.

This isn't an encouraging trend for an Atlanta team that won 88 games in the regular season, the fewest of the eight playoff teams. While our sentimental side says it would be great to see the Braves get another shot in the World Series, the analytical side says, rested or not, the margin for error is too small with Arizona sending Johnson and Schilling out four times on regular rest.

Jerry Colangelo gets his World Series. The AL series is a genuine pick 'em, as they say in the Southeastern Conference. We at Chasing the Pennant no longer believe that we will see the Yankees beaten in our lifetimes. So make the ALCS the Pinstripes in eight, nine, 10, 11 or whatever it takes to get Rudy Giuliani box seats at another World Series.

Other points to consider from a championship series primer:

Still the longest road
Having disposed of a 102-win Oakland team, the Yankees face a Mariners team whose win total is at 119 and climbing. "If they beat both of these clubs, they might be the team of the century," Texas manager Jerry Narron says.

Uh, Jerry. The last time the Yankees weren't the team of the century, players caught the ball bare-handed. With their comeback against Oakland, the Yankees have won 13 of their last 14 playoff series. They are 49-17 in games during this stretch, including a 4-0 record in elimination games (all against Oakland the last two years).

Monday night's victory actually ended a longer-running trend. The Yankees had lost the last three elimination games they had played in the Bronx, falling to Los Angeles in the 1981 World Series, Kansas City in the 1980 LCS and Cincinnati in the 1976 Series. The last one they won was Bob Turley's five-hit shutout against Milwaukee in Game 5 of the 1958 Series, which the Yankees won in seven games at County Stadium.

The deep freeze
While Ichiro Suzuki was setting a division series record by hitting .600, AL RBI leader Bret Boone had only two singles in 21 at-bats against Cleveland. His 11 strikeouts were a major league record for a five-game series.

	M.Williams

	Boone

"They pitched me different, and for whatever reason, my swing got out of sync," Boone said. "It got a little long. I didn't get the job done. I let the team down. But when you win the series, you throw that all away. Hopefully I can get my swing right for the next series."

Arizona's Matt Williams hopes his double off Dave Veres gets him going. It was Williams' only hit in 16 at-bats against St. Louis.

Other slumping hitters: the Yankees' Scott Brosius (1-for-17), Paul O'Neill (1-for-11), Tino Martinez (2-for-18) and Bernie Williams (4-for-18); the Mariners' Mark McLemore (3-for-18) and John Olerud (3-for-17); Arizona's Mark Grace (3-for-14) and Danny Bautista (0-for-6) and Atlanta's Brian Jordan (2-for-11).

The quietest roll
Jamie Moyer, the oldest pitcher ever to win 20 games for the first time, is set up to start Games 3 and 7 for Seattle. This is no small factor.

Because of his quiet demeanor and subtle pitching style, he is easily overlooked. But he enters the Yankees series having gone 13-1 with a 2.03 ERA in his last 17 starts. He's allowed more than two earned runs only once in his last 12 starts and worked at least five-plus innings in his last 28 starts. The last time he didn't go five was on May 8.

That's impressive. So was the twisting answer Moyer gave the Seattle Times when asked if the Mariners' 116-win regular season would be diminished if they didn't at least reach the World Series.

"That could be a historian's way of looking at it and the media may follow historians and fans may follow the media," Moyer said. "But those of us who've lived it as a team know what we've done and it's no small thing. Nor will it be diminished by what happens from here on."

Short hops

Numerology: Before Saturday, the Athletics had gone 31-4 since Aug. 24. But over the last three days, Oakland lost three straight games, only one less than they dropped in the previous seven weeks. Short end of the score: Both Arizona and Seattle advance to the MLB semifinals despite being outscored in the first round. Two of the three previous teams to do that, Cleveland in '97 and the Yankees last year, advanced to the World Series. Who's next?: Arizona becomes the 16th different team that the Braves have faced in a postseason series since their run of division championship began in 1991. They have played every National League team except the Expos, Brewers and Giants.

Hardware convention
There's never been a postseason gathering that included more decorated pitchers than will be at Bank One Ballpark on Tuesday and Wednesday. The NLCS includes a foursome of pitchers who have 10 Cy Young Awards between them: Greg Maddux (4), Randy Johnson (3), Tom Glavine (2) and John Smoltz (1).

"That's a lot of premium pitchers throwing in one series," Diamondbacks slugger Luis Gonzalez said.

Johnson won the first of his three Cys in the American League. But between Maddux and Johnson, the quartet of Atlanta and Arizona pitchers won every National League Cy since 1991 except one. That one went to Montreal's Pedro Martinez in 1997.

If Johnson doesn't win his fourth this season -- and he should -- then another Arizona teammate, Curt Schilling, will win his first.

New Mr. October
Including an 8-for-18 showing against Oakland, Yankee shortstop Derek Jeter is hitting .355 over 66 career postseason games. It breaks down this way -- .352 in the Divison Series, .319 in the Championship Series and .342 in the World Series.

But it was Jeter's instincts and fielding that led New York back from its 0-2 deficit against the A's. His Game 3 "backhand shovel pass," as Mike Mussina called it, and tumbling catch tumbling into the bleachers in the eighth inning of Game 5 epitomized his prime time nature.

"I've never seen an athlete dominate any sport, football or basketball, like he dominated this playoff series," Yankees owner George Steinbrenner said. "He's just a big-game player."

Apparently Steinbrenner never watched Michael Jordan. But that's beside our point, which is what a special player Jeter is, especially in the playoffs. "Time and again, that guy proves what a winner he is," Tino Martinez said.

Just don't expect to hear him talk about it. Three Yankees were brought to the interview room after Saturday's Game 3, which Jeter saved with his incredibly alert play on Shane Spencer's overthrow. Jeter wasn't among them. Not only did he decline a request to come to the interview room but he downplayed his contributions. Jeter called himself a "backup cutoff man" on the play, which he claimed the Yankees' work on in spring training.

That's doubtful. But there's no doubting Jeter's presence. He is the truth, whether or not he speaks it.

Willing and possibly able
Seattle could get a lift with the return of shortstop Carlos Guillen, who missed the series against Cleveland while recovering from tuberculosis. He took batting practice with his teammates before Game 2 against the Indians, then stayed in Seattle working on strength and conditioning drills.

"There's a possibility Guillen will be available," Piniella said.

Dr. Larry Pedegana said he would be evaluated after Tuesday's workout. "He's going to do some base running at the off-day workout, and also fielding, and we'll see how things look," Pedegana said. "There's a chance he'll be on the club."

Mark McLemore filled in nicely against Cleveland, making a couple of exceptional plays, but is valuable when moved around the field. The Mariners will add an 11th pitcher, picking between righthanders Joel Pineiro and Ryan Franklin. Pineiro could replace Paul Abbott in the starting rotation. The hard-throwing rookie was 6-2 with a 2.03 ERA in 75 1-3 innings with the Mariners. He got hit hard in his one outing against the Yankees, however.

Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune, which has a web site at www.chicagosports.com.