Vince Carter is going to find the playoffs a little rougher than what he's used to.

How else to explain that when Jeff Van Gundy talks about the Toronto Raptors, it sounds as if he's discussing the Los Angeles Lakers?

In Van Gundy's mind, the Raptors and Lakers aren't much different, even though the Lakers did win 22 more games. Despite having a team that won the Eastern Conference title last season, and with a healthy Patrick Ewing playing some of the best ball of his life, Van Gundy sees nothing but trouble in the first-round matchup with Vince Carter and the Raptors.

"We're intimidated by that team, just like we're intimidated by the Lakers," the Knicks coach said this week, sounding the alarms. "The last time we played Toronto, I looked into our players eyes, and I saw fear. The only team they have that look against and defer to is when we play against the Lakers."

Sure, it sounded like Van Gundy was setting the Raptors up and getting ready to spring a trap. But he has reason to paint a bleak picture, too.

As his team won three of the four regular-season meetings with New York, Carter dominated the Knicks to the tune of 33 ppg on 60 percent shooting. Only Shaquille O'Neal puts up those kinds of monster numbers.

Carter made more foul shots (25) than Patrick Ewing, Allan Houston and Latrell Sprewell combined (24). If one team exposed the Knicks' inability to defend shooting guards and small forwards, it was the Raptors.

As Van Gundy witnessed, much to his horror, Carter and Tracy McGrady are almost impossible matchups for Houston and Sprewell, which was why the Knicks tried to acquire defensive specialist Bruce Bowen.

Miami, it turned out, beat the Knicks to the waiver wire for Bowen.

But Carter and McGrady also will be making their playoff debuts. History shows, there's a playoff learning curve for everyone. The Knicks have loads of playoff experience. And, Van Gundy is certainly more than adept when it comes to making adjustments in a series.

With the NBA staging a made-for-TV first round, stretching out the schedule to ridiculous proportions for its friends at TNT and TBS, Van Gundy will have lots of time between games to come up with new looks for Carter.

"I wouldn't want to play New York in the first round," Grant Hill said. "The fact that they went through last year and gained confidence in the postseason, and the fact there's so much in terms of expectations from this team and this city, their confidence has to be sky-high. They feel like they know what it takes to get to the Finals. And they've got the same core back."

Actually, it's somewhat different and possibly better, in that Ewing gives the Knicks a low-post scoring threat, something they missed against San Antonio in the Finals. Once they found themselves matched up with Tim Duncan and David Robinson, Ewing's absence was too much to overcome.

The only member of the core who's limping around is Marcus Camby. Once again, he couldn't stay injury-free, playing a career-low 59 games. He only played two games against his old team this season, picking up more personals (5) than blocks (4). Well, at least Ewing will answer the bell.

"Last season I was hurt, limping around," Ewing recalled. "This year, I will be a lot healthier. I'm looking forward to a great playoff. We have a good opportunity to win a championship."

The only trouble is, if the Knicks somehow get that far again, there might be other purple jerseys waiting for them.

Rim Shots I
You're being called "the next Michael Jordan." All of America will be watching your every move. This will be your first time in the playoffs.

In 1996, the aforementioned player was Grant Hill. Now, it's Vince Carter. So if anyone knows what Carter is about to embark on, it's Detroit's G-man.

"He's going to find out it's a different world, just like I did," Hill said. "Vince is on a better team than the team I was on when I first went to the playoffs. But still, it will be tough. If he doesn't get past the Knicks, someone will put the tag on him, 'he can't get out of the first round.'"

Jordan himself didn't get out of the first round until his fourth playoff season. Hill still hasn't rid himself of the tag. Chances are, it will continue to stick, although Miami might not have the injured Tim Hardaway for the early games against the Pistons. Even if he recovers from his sore foot, no one knows how effective he'll be.

"He's getting treatments 36 hours a day," Pat Riley said.

If there could be an extra 12 hours in a day, the Knicks would use those to figure out how to stop Carter. One Eastern Conference coach said he'd make Carter shoot off the dribble, as much as possible.

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That's easier said than done. At least, as far as the regular season goes.

"I can see Vince going off and exploding -- he's that good of a player," Hill said. "But it also wouldn't surprise me if he finds out how tough the playoffs are. He's not going to get as many calls as they gave him in the regular season. It's going to be more physical. It's something he can't prepare for. I had to learn. Everybody does."

Everybody, including Michael Jordan.

Rim Shots II
Gazing into our crystal ball for the first round, how we see the conference champs shaping up and the Finals:

Eastern Conference:
New York-Toronto. Knicks in 5. Could be the Knicks' toughest opponent in the East.
Indiana-Milwaukee. Pacers in 4. Pacers have too much up front for the Bucks.
Miami-Detroit. Heat in 5. Here's a first-round foe Miami can beat.
Charlotte-Philadelphia. Sixers in 5. Wouldn't be an upset.

Western Conference:
Lakers-Sacramento. Lakers in 4. Given how the Kings play D, a sweep isn't out of the question.
Portland-Minnesota. Blazers in 4. Portland has length and size and quickness to hold down Kevin Garnett.
Utah-Seattle. Jazz in 4. Seattle's big men can't stop Karl Malone.
San Antonio-Phoenix. Spurs in 4. If Tim Duncan were healthy, this would be no contest.

Conference champs: San Antonio and New York.

Champion: San Antonio in 6.