| | By Andy Katz
ESPN.com
The NBA needed some legal assistance in verifying the early entry list
before releasing it to the public Friday.
They should have employed a psychologist to analyze the mindset of
the majority of players who were seeking employment in the NBA before their
time.
|  | | Jamal Crawford is one of many players who would benefit from staying in school. |
After checking with each name on the list to eliminate the possibility of impostors sending in letters declaring a player eligible for the draft, one question was left:
Who is advising these guys?
If all of them were to be middle to late first-round draft picks like they
were told, there would have to be as many teams picking in the first round as there
are in the NCAA Tournament.
The school of thought in the NBA and in college basketball is this:
If a player is a lock to be picked in the top 15-20 picks of the first round, then
coming out is acceptable. But a player who leaves college, junior college or high school to be a marginal first-round prospect pick greatly jeopardizes future earnings.
"A lot of guys haven't done their homework," said Larry Harris,
Milwaukee's director of player personnel. "Go back to Rashard Lewis and find
out how many people were telling him he would be in the top 15 (in 1998). He
didn't go until the second round."
Some of the players who have declared may have academic or eligibility issues, while others have family financial demands. That's fine. But what about the others? Leaving early may be a rude
awakening when they find out that they're not first-round material. Have these
players heard of the senior class? Yes, there are some seniors -- at least 10, by our count -- who will
be drafted in the first round. Have these players heard of foreigners? Yes,
there are at least a few who will be taken in
the first round, just like every season.
"In the short term, this makes for a better, deeper draft but in the
long term it hurts," said Washington Wizards scouting director Chuck Douglas. "A
lot of guys could have continued to develop and had a greater impact had
they stayed."
Douglas cited an example that will face teams over the next month:
Does a team take a four-year player like a Pete Mickeal (Cincinnati), who is experienced and physically mature, or a player like Jamal Crawford (Michigan), a raw, inexperienced and immature freshman?
"In 95 percent of the cases, unless they're a top three or four
pick, they should have stayed in school," Douglas said.
Last year's draft lottery shows that coming out isn't always a lock
for stardom. Charlotte's Baron Davis struggled in his first NBA season, as did Indiana's
Jonathan Bender. Davis left with two years to spare at UCLA while Bender came straight out of high school, not even bothering to attend Mississippi State.
So, who looks like they made a mistake? According to NBA scouts
polled by ESPN.com, at least 14 of the 35 underclassmen who declared would be wise to return to school if they could (high school and junior college players can't once they declare).
Life University's Jimmie Hunter bolted after one season instead of building
more of a following at the NAIA level. Indian Hills (Iowa) College's Cory
Hightower (TCU signee) never played at a higher level and teammate Ernest
Brown (Iowa State signee) never got a chance to develop post skills at
Division I.
Scouts have said Hightower needs to show he can play defense while Brown
could have used Larry Eustachy's coaching to develop his skills.
Former Alabama swing guard Schea Cotton left school rather than transferring again and sitting out another season. But that may have given him a chance to get
into the first round. A commitment from Cotton has been questioned because
he's been at a number of schools over the past four years. DePaul junior
Paul McPherson wasn't always in the good graces of coach Pat Kennedy. But,
if McPherson had returned, he could have given himself a chance for the
first round in 2001 by expanding his perimeter game (especially with teammate Quentin Richardson going pro).
Connecticut junior Khalid El-Amin, Ohio State junior Michael Redd,
Florida freshman Donnell Harvey and UCLA sophomore JaRon Rush have all made
it clear that they're gone for good. Too bad. All four are on the bubble
for the first round and could have improved their stock with one more solid season. El-Amin's conditioning, Redd's shooting, Harvey's offensive game
around the basket and Rush's consistency from the perimeter would have all
improved.
The best bets to return to college once they realize they may not
crack the first round are UCLA freshman Jason Kapono, Michigan freshman
Jamal Crawford, SMU junior Jeryl Sasser and Providence junior Karim Shabazz.
Kapono's lack of defensive quickness and inability to get off a shot on his own are major questions. Crawford's playmaking skills and shooting are far from refined.
Sasser still hasn't settled on a position (point guard? small forward?) and Shabazz isn't physically ready
to compete inside at the NBA level.
Kansas signee DeShawn Stevenson chose the NBA over taking the
SAT again. Gambling on the draft isn't a bad idea, as his athleticism could get him picked in the second half of the first round. Temple's Mark
Karcher had family financial pressure which forced him to leave. The
decision could pay off if he goes in the first round as a decent shooting small
forward. Missouri sophomore point guard Keyon Dooling could still return to
school, but he'll likely be assured that he'll go high enough to stay in
the draft.
So which underclassmen can sit in the green room at the draft at the Target Center
in Minneapolis and not sweat the decision?
Iowa State's Marcus Fizer, Florida's Mike Miller, St. John's signee
Darius Miles, Minnesota's Joel Przybilla, Texas' Chris Mihm, LSU's Stromile
Swift, Cincinnati's DerMarr Johnson, DePaul's Quentin Richardson, UCLA's
Jerome Moiso and St. John's Erick Barkley.
The top seven players in the draft (the order depends on the draft
order) are likely to be Cincinnati senior Kenyon Martin, Mihm, Swift, Fizer,
Przybilla, Miles and Fresno State senior Courtney Alexander. Johnson and
Miller are probably the next two in line. Moiso, Barkley and
Richardson are all possible lottery selections.
Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com. | |
ALSO SEE
Draft: Projecting the first round
Nets weigh M&M's: Mihm and Martin
Early-entry list for NBA draft has some surprises
Early-entry candidates for NBA draft
NBA draft: Who could go in the first round
Draft: Top five players by position
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