| | By Andy Katz
ESPN.com
With the number of impact players available in the NBA draft somewhere between few and none, this year's selections will be based on the potential of the underclassmen and the needs of the teams.
NBA scouts, general managers and player personnel directors are banking heavily on impressions made at private workouts and the Chicago pre-draft camp June 6-9. Because so many players are relatively close in terms of talent and opinions could change almost daily, this is the first of several projections we'll have on ESPN.com.
A number of players still have work to do to earn first-round spots, but could easily sneak back on with impressive workouts and/or a strong showing in Chicago.
The borderline first-rounders who didn't make ESPN.com's list but have a chance to move up are UCLA sophomore forward JaRon Rush, LSU senior center Jabari Smith, Temple junior guard Mark Karcher, UCLA freshman guard Jason Kapono, Purdue senior forward Brian Cardinal, Connecticut junior point guard Khalid El-Amin, Indiana senior guard A.J. Guyton, Ohio State senior point guard Scoonie Penn, Northern Arizona senior center Dan McClintock, Ohio State junior guard Michael Redd, Penn State senior center Jarrett Stephens, Turkey forward Hidayet Turkoglu and Nigerian forward Olumide Oyediji.
Any of these players could crack the bottom third of the draft over the next month. The problem for underclassmen such as Kapono and Karcher is they must decide if it's worth the risk to stay in the draft. Underclassmen have until June 21 to pull their name out and still return to school. Rush, El-Amin and Redd have all said they plan on staying in the draft, regardless of what happens.
ESPN.com checked with scouts around the league to get a feel about its mock draft and came up with these 29 selections for the week of May 22.
|  | | Mihm towered over much of the competition in college. |
1. New Jersey -- Chris Mihm, 7-0, Jr., Texas: The Nets need a center and could go with Mihm or Kenyon Martin, but the pick here is Mihm. The Nets could either hold on to the pick and see if Jayson Williams plays next season, or deal it to the Bulls for the No. 4 and No. 7 picks.
2. Vancouver - Kenyon Martin, 6-9, Sr., Cincinnati: The Grizzlies would be getting a steal by grabbing Martin at No. 2. He's the hardest-working player in the draft and, with a healthy leg, the most effective low-post scorer. Martin could play next to Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Bryant Reeves. If the Grizzlies aren't ready to go with Martin, he makes for a tantalizing trade.
3. Los Angeles Clippers - Stromile Swift, 6-9, So., LSU: The Clippers have already inquired about Swift and see him as a potential small/power forward (which goes against LSU coach John Brady's philosophy of how to use him defensively). But, if Swift knows he's going to the Clips, he could opt to return to school. He has said he will not hire an agent, leaving the door open for a return.
4. Chicago -- Joel Przybilla, 7-0, Soph., Minnesota: The Bulls need a center for their triangle offense. If they can't trade for Mihm, Przybilla is next in line. He needs work but he has the skills to develop into a better offensive product than Luc Longley was during the Bulls' championship runs.
5. Orlando -- Marcus Fizer, 6-8, Jr., Iowa State: The Magic love Darius Miles but won't let Fizer drop below No. 5 if he's available. Fizer gives the Magic an inside scorer and a tough presence on the backboard that they lacked last season. Doc Rivers will fall in love with his work ethic.
6. Atlanta -- Mike Miller, 6-8, Soph., Florida: The Hawks have been high on Miller for a month and won't let him slide past them. Miles might be a better scorer but Miller's versatility will win the Hawks over at No. 6. Atlanta wants a small forward over a big guard.
7. Chicago -- Darius Miles, 6-9, HS, East St. Louis (Ill.): The Bulls can package Miles and Przybilla to the Nets or keep two players who could be solid players in the league. Miles might have more of an upside than Tracy McGrady. Tim Floyd knows all about working with high school seniors and would have the patience to wait for Miles to develop.
8. Cleveland -- Iakovos Tsakalidis, 7-1, Greece: The Cavs want size and the third-rated center in the draft is Tsakalidis. The Celtics covet him, too, but Cleveland might not give them the chance because of the Cavs' need for size with the uncertainty in their frontcourt. Reviews on Tsakalidis are split -- either scouts love him or think he's too slow.
9. Houston -- Courtney Alexander, 6-5, Sr., Fresno State: Alexander could go higher but not above six. The Rockets need scorers and Alexander will produce during individual workouts. The choice of Alexander, DeShawn Stevenson, DerMarr Johnson or Morris Peterson is hard to argue. Alexander can rise over a defense for a jump shot and has a pro game.
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Draft rumblings
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A few notes on the eve of the Chicago pre-draft camp:
Chris Mihm: He'll likely end up as a Net, Grizzly or Bull. But that's if he
stays with the team that picks him. Mihm is trade bait for the Nets or the
Grizzlies if they decide to take him. But he can't fall below No. 4
Kenyon Martin: He's clearly the best overall player in the draft but his leg
injury could scare off the Nets. The smart move is for them to take him. If
they don't, the Grizzlies won't come close to using the full five minutes on draft night to call his name.
Stromile Swift: He has moved ahead of Marcus Fizer as a top-three player. He
could end up with any one of the top three teams. Falling to No. 4 seems to
be a reach for Swift.
The No. 6 through No. 9 guys: Look for Darius Miles, Mike Miller, Courtney
Alexander and DerMarr Johnson to fall in this group in some order. The only
player who could sneak in here and boot one of them out is Morris Peterson.
DeShawn Stevenson: He'll likely end up with a team that has
multiple picks. That means either Orlando or the Clippers. His best work out
so far was for the Clips, who could nab him at 18 if he's available. Taking
Stevenson at No. 10 or 13 is probably too high for the Magic. But they could
trade down with one of the picks and have someone else take him later in the
draft.
Safest pick: Etan Thomas to the Bucks if he's available.
Safest pick II: The Pistons taking either Michigan State player - Mateen
Cleaves or Peterson - at No. 14.
What will Dallas do? Auburn's Mamadou N'diaye fits the Mavericks' needs but
don't be shocked if Don Nelson goes foreign again and grabs either Olumide
Oyedeji or Antonio Fotsis.
What about picks 16 to 29? Wide open. The only safe bets are that St. John's
Erick Barkley, DePaul's Quentin Richardson and UCLA's Jerome Moiso won't
last long if they're available starting at No. 16.
What teams may draft for 2001-02? Look for Portland and the Lakers to take
players who may never play a minute in 2000-01. Neither team needs to
retool and can take a flyer on a player who isn't ready.
-- Andy Katz
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10. Orlando -- DeShawn Stevenson, 6-5, HS, Washington Union (Fresno, Calif.): The Magic will take one of the two high school seniors with one of their three picks. If Miles is gone, Stevenson will be too by No. 11. Orlando has scouted him for months and Rivers can afford to let Stevenson mature without feeling pressured to play him next season.
11. Boston -- DerMarr Johnson, 6-9, Fr., Cincinnati: Johnson can't slip past 11 with his Lamar Odom-like skills on the wing. The Celtics need size but can't let a scorer get past them in the draft. Johnson learned defense from Max Good and Bob Huggins, so Rick Pitino's pressure defense shouldn't be much different.
12. Dallas -- Mamadou N'diaye, 7-0, Sr., Auburn: Trying to predict what Don Nelson will do is the most difficult thing in this mock draft. But the Mavericks need athleticism in the frontcourt. They can't afford to go with a foreigner or a slower big man. N'diaye fits here if he does well in workouts and in Chicago -- if he shows.
13. Orlando -- Mateen Cleaves, 6-2, Sr., Michigan State: The Magic have to take a point guard with one of their three picks, but no one is good enough to spend the No. 5 or No. 10 pick on. Cleaves is at the top of the point-guard list list -- and would fit Rivers' style of play and coaching because of his leadership and toughness.
14. Detroit -- Morris Peterson, 6-6, Sr., Michigan State: The Pistons won't let the local hero leave the state. Peterson gives them a scorer to go next to or in place of Grant Hill if he leaves via free agency. Peterson could go higher -- if he's gone, the Pistons will take Alexander or Johnson.
15. Milwaukee -- Etan Thomas, 6-9, Sr., Syracuse: The Bucks want a power forward and Thomas is fourth on their list behind Martin, Fizer and Swift. None will be available by the time they pick. Thomas can give them a rebounder and defender, something they lacked in their playoff losses to the Pacers.
16. Sacramento -- Erick Barkley, 6-1, Soph., St. John's: The Kings need a backup point to Jason Williams. Barkley could come in and wouldn't be under any pressure to perform immediately. He's the No. 2 point guard behind Cleaves.
17. Seattle -- Quentin Richardson, 6-6, Soph., DePaul: Had Richardson stayed, he would have probably been in the lottery next season. But he doesn't fit all of the teams' needs above, which is why he falls all the way to the Sonics. He gives them another rebounding wing and a scorer to complement Rashard Lewis, if he re-signs.
18. Los Angeles Clippers -- Keyon Dooling, 6-3, Soph., Missouri: The Clippers need a point guard but won't take one at No. 3. Dooling has the upside that some of the senior points don't carry into the draft. But the potential of being a mid-teens draft pick may scare Dooling into returning to school.
19. Charlotte -- Jerome Moiso, 6-10, Soph., UCLA: Moiso could still slide up into the late lottery (maybe to Dallas) but if he falls, the Hornets will catch him. Moiso can play power forward or center for the Hornets because of his ability to block shots and score from 12 feet in to the basket. The Hornets could use a frontcourt player or shooting guard in this draft.
20. Philadelphia -- Jamal Crawford, 6-6, Fr., Michigan: The Sixers have already called on Crawford's behalf and love him as a combo guard to come off the bench. Crawford would likely stay in the draft if he's in the first round, regardless of where he's being picked.
21. Toronto -- Craig "Speedy" Claxton, 5-11, Sr., Hofstra: The Raptors have already begun working out point guards and have Claxton in their top five. If Cleaves, Barkley, Dooling and Crawford are all gone, Claxton is the natural pick for the Raptors.
22. New York -- Jamaal Magloire, 6-11, Sr., Kentucky: The Knicks took some heat for taking Frederic Weis last year. Jeff Van Gundy wants tough, physical players. Magloire gets the nod over Jason Collier if the Knicks go big. Magloire proved this season that he can play with passion in the post.
23. Utah -- Hanno Möttölä, 6-9, Sr., Utah: The Jazz can't go wrong with picking Möttölä from nearby Utah. He can score from the wing, but he'll end up playing more inside because of his defensive limitations as a small forward. If Möttölä doesn't go to the Jazz, he could slip out of the first round.
24. Chicago -- Jeryl Sasser, 6-7, Jr., SMU: The Bulls have to find a point guard in this draft but can't go after one in the lottery. The most intriguing point guard left could be Sasser. He can play both guard positions, he's one of the better defenders in the draft and would give the Bulls some versatility on the floor.
25. Phoenix -- Jason Collier, 7-0, Sr., Georgia Tech: The Suns need another big guy to go with Luc Longley -- either as a backup, or on the floor together. Collier has more offensive potential than many big men. The Suns have the luxury to allow Collier a few years to develop into a NBA center.
26. Utah -- Chris Carrawell, 6-6, Sr., Duke: The Jazz need to add athleticism and fresh legs, either with Carrawell or Oklahoma State's Desmond Mason. Carrawell will probably get the nod because of his Duke pedigree. He could still go higher but his 'tweener status fits more as a late first-round pick.
27. Indiana -- Donnell Harvey, 6-8, Fr., Florida: Harvey is getting rave reviews for his work ethic in workouts, and he didn't leave school early without some sort of assurance he could go in the first round. The Pacers have a history of going younger in the draft.
28. Portland -- Soumaila Samake, 7-2, Cincinnati Stuff (IBL): The Blazers don't need much but could go with a wacky pick by taking the first player to jump from the fledgling IBL to the NBA. Samake has the size, shot-blocking skills and potential to be an NBA center. Arvydas Sabonis doesn't have many miles left in his legs.
29. Los Angeles Lakers -- Desmond Mason, 6-6, Sr., Oklahoma State: Here's where any one of the bubble players could go, such as Rush, Karcher or Stephens. But Mason is a more polished, experienced player. He gives the Lakers an athlete on the wing who would fit in well in their system.
Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com.
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