| | We can hear the howls already: East Coast bias .. .network influence ... the ghost of Dave Gavitt.
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Projecting the NIT
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A look at a possible field for the National Invitation Tournament (as of Feb. 28):
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Alabama
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Arizona State
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Arkansas
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Ball State
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BYU
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California
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Colorado
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Georgetown
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Long Beach St.
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Marquette
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Michigan
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Mississippi
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New Mexico
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N. Mexico St.
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N.C. State
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Ohio
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Penn State
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Princeton
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Rutgers
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Saint Louis
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South Florida
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Southern Illinois
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Southern Miss
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St. Bonaventure
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Tulane
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UAB
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UCLA
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UNLV
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USC
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Virginia
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Wake Forest
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Xavier
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This week's bracket projection lists seven Big East
teams in the NCAA field. Loyalists of the ACC, Conference USA
and Pac-10 would no doubt like to file this column in a shredder.
How can this happen? More important, will it happen? Separate questions;
separate answers.
First question: How can this happen? The single most frequent error made by
media and fans across the country is applying the familiar (but flawed)
logic, "Our conference is going to get X number of NCAA bids. Therefore,
Team A and Team B are playing for the last spot from our league."
The real truth, reinforced every year by the selection committee, is that
conferences do not earn tournament bids; teams do. In other words, it
remains the responsibility of the committee to select the very best at-large
teams regardless of conference affiliation.
If, say, the seventh Big East team has a better across-the-board profile than more obvious NCAA candidates from other multiple-bid conferences -- which is the case this week (Notre Dame
has more RPI Top 25 wins than the next four at-large candidates combined) -- the
committee is well within its guidelines to select that team.
Second question: Will this happen? Probably not. The various conference
tournaments have a way of sorting things out. If a Notre Dame loses early in its conference tourney, and a Virginia or Xavier makes a lengthy run in its respective league tournament (necessarily defeating
other NCAA candidates along the way), the at-large board -- especially right at
the cut line -- tends to change very rapidly.
So here is the projected NCAA Tournament field as if Selection Sunday were Feb. 28, realizing full well the tremendous movement that can occur over the next two weeks. Please note that bracket projections are prepared each Monday.
Results after Sunday are not reflected until the following set of projections.
However, during Championship Week, ESPN.com will post more frequent projections. Check this space next week for a complete schedule.
West Region
March 16, 2000/Tucson, Ariz.
(1) Stanford vs. (16) MEAC/Coppin State
(8) North Carolina vs. (9) DePaul
(5) Indiana vs. (12) Pepperdine
(4) Syracuse vs. (13) MAAC/Siena
March 16, 2000/Salt Lake City, Utah
(3) LSU vs. (14) SOUTHERN/Charleston
(6) Illinois vs. (11) Notre Dame
(7) Dayton vs. (10) Fresno State
(2) Iowa State vs. (15) BIG SKY/Eastern Washington
Midwest Region
March 16, 2000/Cleveland
(1) Cincinnati vs. (16) MID-CON/Valparaiso
(8) Seton Hall vs. (9) Oregon
(5) Kentucky vs. (12) Gonzaga
(4) Oklahoma State vs. (13) MCC/Butler
March 16, 2000/Minneapolis
(3) Maryland vs. (14) OVC/SE Missouri State
(6) Kansas vs. (11) BIG WEST/Utah State
(7) Auburn vs. (10) Southern Methodist
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) SLC/Sam Houston State
East Region
March 17, 2000/Winston-Salem, N.C.
(1) Duke vs. (16) SWAC/Alcorn State
(8) Miami vs. (9) Kent
(5) Texas vs. (12) AMERICA EAST/Hofstra
(4) Purdue vs. (13) IVY/Pennsylvania
March 17, 2000/Buffalo, N.Y.
(3) Florida vs. (14) NEC/Central Connecticut State
(6) Connecticut vs. (11) Wisconsin
(7) Utah vs. (10) Indiana State
(2) Temple vs. (15) PATRIOT/Navy
South Region
March 17, 2000/Birmingham, Ala.
(1) Arizona vs. (16) TAAC/Troy State
(8) Vanderbilt vs. (9) Missouri
(5) Tulsa vs. (12) SW Missouri State
(4) St. John's vs. (13) CAA/George Mason
March 17, 2000/Nashville, Tenn.
(3) Ohio State vs. (14) SUN BELT/South Alabama
(6) Oklahoma vs. (11) Villanova
(7) Louisville vs. (10) Bowling Green
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) BIG SOUTH/Radford
Blue Ribbon bits
Teams preceded by their conference name in ALL CAPS are the current league
(or RPI) leaders. Teams from multiple-bid conferences, or who would earn an
at-large bid regardless of their league position, are listed without such a
prefix.
The Mountain West and WAC are without automatic bids this season. Thus,
there are only 29 conferences (instead of the maximum 30) which will place an
automatic qualifier into the NCAA field this year.
Please note that Syracuse (East) and Texas (South) cannot be placed in
their respective regions, as each host a regional final this year.
Who's hot? The following projected tourney teams are 10-0 in their last 10 games:
Butler, Navy, Pennsylvania, Stanford, Temple, Utah State.
Who's not? Some not-so-inspiring records over the last 10 games: Arizona State (5-5), Colorado (5-5), Notre Dame (5-5), St. Bonaventure (5-5), Vanderbilt (5-5), Wisconsin (5-5), Brigham
Young (4-6), Marquette (4-6), UCLA (4-6).
The most notable records vs. RPI Top 25 competition (good and bad): Tennessee
(5-2), Michigan State (5-5), Cincinnati (4-1), Purdue (4-1), Arizona (4-2), Iowa State
(4-2), LSU (4-2), St. John's (4-2), Notre Dame (4-4), Vanderbilt (4-4),
Kentucky (4-7), Florida (3-2), Indiana (3-3), Maryland (3-3), Ohio State
(3-3), Oklahoma State (3-3), Connecticut (3-4), Illinois (3-4), Texas (3-5),
Wisconsin (3-6), Seton Hall (2-3), Colorado (2-4), Duke (2-4), Oklahoma
(2-4), DePaul (2-5), Kansas (2-5), Missouri (2-7), Auburn (1-4), North
Carolina (1-6), Arizona State (0-4), Pennsylvania (0-4), UCLA (0-4),
Villanova (0-4), Virginia (0-4).
The only teams remaining perfect in road games (neutral sites excluded) are
Duke (9-0) and Stanford (8-0). And, to the many who have asked about
Maryland's road record, the NCAA considers its loss to George Washington as a
"road" game.
The following poor road records are worth noting: Virginia (5-7), Xavier
(4-7), Southern Mississippi (4-6), Tulane (4-6), Utah (4-6), Vanderbilt
(4-6), Wisconsin (3-9), Louisville (3-7), Marquette (3-7), Notre Dame (3-7),
Villanova (3-7), Arizona State (3-6), UCLA (3-6), Colorado (2-9), Auburn
(2-6).
Strength of schedule numbers you might not believe: Ohio State (209,
non-conference), Miami (210, non-conference) Tulsa (220, non-conference),
Siena (222, overall), UNLV (232, non-conference), Butler (235,
non-conference), Syracuse (236, non-conference), Tulane (245,
non-conference), Virginia (261, non-conference), Long Beach State (267,
overall), Seton Hall (271, non-conference), Charleston (276, overall), South
Florida (286, non-conference), Bowling Green (290, non-conference), Central
Connecticut State (306, overall), Navy (310, overall), Valparaiso (312,
overall).
Among the so-called "mid-major" conferences, the following teams project to
earn an at-large bid regardless of their conference tournament performance:
Utah State (Big West), Indiana State (MVC), Pepperdine (West Coast).
An interesting scenario has unfolded in the Mid-Continent Conference, where
regular-season champion and Division I newcomer Oakland (Mich.) is not yet
eligible for the league's automatic bid. Valparaiso is the conference's top
seed by virtue of a tiebreaker with Southern Utah.
Moving up (alphabetical order, including NIT projections): Alabama, Arkansas, Bowling Green, Bradley, Butler, Colorado State, Coppin State, Dayton, Fresno State, George Mason, Hofstra,
Iowa State, LSU, Maryland, Miami, Purdue, Radford, St. John's, South Alabama,
Southeast Missouri State, Troy State, Valparaiso, Wisconsin.
Going down (alphabetical order, including NIT projections): Auburn, California, Bethune-Cookman, Central Connecticut State, Charleston, Creighton, James Madison, Louisiana-Lafayette, Murray State, New Mexico, North Carolina State, Notre Dame, Southern Utah,
Texas, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Winthrop.
Since it has become a discussion item among so many readers, teams listed
as either Moving Up or Going Down are those NCAA Tournament candidates moving
either 10 or more RPI spots in a given week and/or those that move two or
more projected NCAA seed lines.
Oregon, Villanova and Pepperdine are listed one slot lower than their true
seed this week in order to comply with all bracketing criteria (the selection
committee allows teams to be moved in such instances no more than one line
from their true seed). The beneficiaries -- three teams moved up a seed
line -- are North Carolina, Indiana State and Wisconsin.
Multiple-conference breakdown: Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (6), SEC
(6), ACC (3), Conference USA (3), Pac-10 (3), WAC (3), Atlantic 10 (2),
Mid-American (2), MVC (2), West Coast (2).
Last four in: Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Southwest Missouri State, Wisconsin.
Last four out: Xavier, Virginia, Arizona State, St. Bonaventure.
Joe Lunardi can be contacted at "jlunardi@sju.edu". He will also appear Monday nights (10:20 p.m. ET) and Saturday afternoons (2:20 p.m. ET) on ESPN Radio and chat every Friday at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN.com.
To order the adidas Blue Ribbon Tournament Preview, call 1-800-828-HOOP
(4667). This 80-page volume is prepared on Selection Sunday and rushed to
you in time for first-round games. BLUE RIBBON postseason reports -- including new online editions -- are also available at www.collegebaskets.com.
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ALSO SEE
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Weekly Watch: Scratching our heads
Cinderella Watch
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