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| | Sunday, March 12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bubble teams around the country let out a collective groan at approximately 3 p.m. ET Sunday. That's when Arkansas did its best Saint Louis impression, winning its fourth game in four days to secure an automatic bid.
Wake Forest's win over North Carolina gives the Heels 13 losses and a serious case of heartburn. Then Virginia tripped up against N.C. State, leaving a giant question mark over the RPI-strapped Cavaliers. The Demon Deacons played Duke tough for a half but couldn't keep up, ending any bubble hopes before they really got started for Wake. It's unthinkable that the ACC would get only two bids -- isn't it?
And then there were none. St. Bonaventure's surge to the Atlantic 10 final -- dispatching Xavier and Dayton on the way -- put the Bonnies in the field of 64. Winning eight of their last 11, the Bonnies give the Atlantic 10 three solid entries to the Big Dance.
Bubble No. 1 might have popped in the Big East. Notre Dame's heart-breaking loss to Miami in the Big East quarterfinals puts the Irish in no man's land -- five marquee wins, but 14 losses overall. Then bubble No. 2 took a hit when Villanova fell to St. John's later Thursday night. Now that both teams have been bounced in the quarterfinals, it might be a situation of neither having a strong enough case to make the NCAAs.
Beating Indiana in the regular-season finale gives Wisconsin a nice head of steam going into the Big Ten tournament. The Badgers kept it going by beating hapless Northwestern in the first round and Purdue in the quarterfinals, putting Wisconsin on the good side of the bubble.
While a few other bubble babies were dropping (see Big East), Missouri grabbed the one Big 12 tourney win it probably needed to make the Dance. The Tigers' strong Big 12 record and good power rating make them an attractive at-large candidate. A quarterfinal matchup with Oklahoma promised to be a doozy and it was, as the Soooners prevailed 84-80 in overtime.
The biggest surprise of the conference tournament season struck Conference USA when No. 9 seed Saint Louis captured the title, and therefore an automatic berth. This shouldn't hurt DePaul's at-large chances (bids aren't given out by conference), unless DePaul was the 64th team in the field before Saturday. But the ripples will be felt throughout Bubble Land.
We hate to do this, but circumstances elsewhere have made Kent's profile look not so hot. Maybe it's a bit of the "out of sight, out of mind" phenomenon going on, but the Flashes just don't stand up to scrutiny as well as they used to (just try to figure out that power rating). Ball State helped out its MAC brethren by beating Miami (Ohio) in the final, ensuring that at least one at-large bid would be available to either Kent or Bowling Green. Kent has the superior power rating, but slumped down the stretch while Bowling Green captured a divsion title. Both underperformed in the conference tournament, possibly leaving a bad taste in the mouth of the selection committee.
Creighton can rest easy now that it won the MVC tournament title. That's not the case for Indiana State and Southwest Missouri State. The MVC got three bids last season; don't expect the committee to be as generous this year. Southern Illinois gets pinched in a numbers game -- it can't match Indiana State's regular-season title or SMS' power rating. If the selection committee only takes one at-large, expect it to be Southwest Missouri State.
Automatic, shmautomatic. When you win your regular-season title and tournament title, you're in the Dance. UNLV has come on down the stretch and looked unbeatable in the first half of the MWC title game against BYU. That poor start ended the Cougars' sleeper run and their hopes of an at-large bid. As for Utah, which lost to BYU in the semis, life is little frantic now thanks to a so-so power rating and a 4-7 road record.
Arizona State was in position to pull off a tourney-clinching upset just like UCLA did, but the Sun Devils couldn't slow down Stanford in the second half Saturday in a 65-57 loss. The Pac-10 will get four, but no more.
Welcome to the field of 64, Arkansas. This shouldn't affect the SEC's hopes of six at-large bids because Vanderbilt was in the field before teams like the Razorbacks and Saint Louis made their runs to unlikely automatic bids. The committee won't care about seven bids from one conference if all seven are deserving -- we think they are.
A strong finishing kick -- eight wins in a row, to be exact -- has propelled Fresno State off the bubble and into the field of 64. Beating Tulsa for the third time this season shows that Tark's crew deserves a bid. SMU's struggles down the stretch continued with an 87-82 loss to Hawaii in the first round of the WAC tournament. At one point a 21-5 team surging toward the postseason, now the Mustangs have lost three in a row. That's a sure ticket to the NIT.
At first, Gonzaga's win over Pepperdine in the WCC final looked like it wouldn't hit the Waves hard. But looking around at other bubble teams making mad dashes (like Saint Louis, Arkansas and Fresno State), we see less and less difference between Pepperdine's profile and the likes of North Carolina, Notre Dame, Southwest Missouri State, etc. | ALSO SEE The Word on the Bubble Championship Week Projecting the NCAA Tournament Notre Dame: On the bubble Katz: Bursting the bubble Bubble breakdown: Last teams in Cinderella Watch Ratings Percentage Index Message board: Who's on the bubble? ACC Atlantic 10 Big East Big Ten Big 12 Conference USA Mid-American Missouri Valley Mountain West Pac-10 SEC WAC West Coast  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||