Sean Salisbury's Super Bowl breakdown


Murphy: Super letdown


Reams of Reeves questions


Falcons embrace underdog role


Reeves, Shanahan meet again


Broncos favored over Birds? You bet


Miami ready to party


Dirty Birds flying south to Miami after stunning Vikes


Mile High exit? Elway leads Denver back to Super Bowl



  Saturday, Jan. 30 5:25pm ET
Time to answer some Super questions
ESPN.com

ESPN's Mike Golic is a sucker for storybook endings, and while he's not normally swayed by the idea of destiny's darlings, he's making an exception for the Atlanta Falcons. After watching their comeback victory Sunday at Minnesota, Golic thinks the Super Bowl could be the next surprise in Atlanta's shocking season.

But that wasn't the only thing on Golic's mind after the Denver Broncos joined the Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIII. Golic joined Merril Hoge and Sean Salisbury in a preliminary breakdown of the Jan. 31 showdown in Miami.

How will Atlanta's defensive front handle the challenge of Terrell Davis?
Mike Golic
ESPN's Mike Golic: The key to this question will be Atlanta's defensive ends. The Broncos like to run a lot of sweeps for Terrell Davis, which they did Sunday against the Jets, especially toward the left side of the offensive line.

That puts the onus on Chuck Smith, who likes to penetrate up the field. If he can do that against Denver, forcing Davis to cut back right away, the Falcons' defense will be in good shape because Davis really has been hurting teams when he gets to the corner.

Atlanta has the type of defensive line that can stop Davis. The Falcons like to shoot the gaps, and all four of the defensive linemen specialize in penetrating. If they can make Davis dance a little bit before he goes north and south, that gives the linebackers a chance to come up and make a play.

 
Merril Hoge
ESPN's Merril Hoge: In terms of overall units, Denver has the best offensive line in football, and it will face the best defensive line in football. The Falcons create a lot of problems for an opposing offense with their twisting and stunting.

But the Broncos are committed to the run, and they will have to keep giving the ball to Davis. When you're facing a defensive line like Atlanta's, as long as you're patient, you will eventually get a big run. The Falcons will have to be extremely sound and disciplined, because all it takes is one guy out of position and Davis will hit that hole.

If the Falcons allow Davis two big runs in this game, it's going to be tough to beat Denver.

 
Sean Salisbury
ESPN's Sean Salisbury: The Falcons have no choice but to handle Davis, but I don't think you can stop him completely. Even if Davis is struggling, John Elway can get hot and that opens up running lanes. If the Falcons put seven men on the line of scrimmage, that still means Denver can get one body on every defensive body, and the Broncos can handle any team in that kind of situation.

The Falcons did a great job of stopping Robert Smith on Sunday, but no team can stop Davis unless it completely sells out against the run. And if a defense sells out against the run, that opens the door for Ed McCaffrey, Rod Smith, Shannon Sharpe and Elway. That's not a wise tradeoff.

Maybe the Falcons could follow a formula NBA teams used against the Bulls: Let Michael Jordan score his 40, but don't let the other players eat you alive. Maybe the Falcons can give Davis his yards and focus on holding everyone else down.

Atlanta has an extremely underrated defense, and the Falcons will be up for the challenge. It's amazing what a Super Bowl can do for a team, but it's going to be a matter of who's quicker to the punch. Physically, the Falcons are going to be a little bit quicker and guess correctly every once in a while.

 
How will Dan Reeves plan to attack Denver's defense?
Mike Golic
ESPN's Mike Golic: On Sunday, Minnesota put eight and sometimes nine guys in the box to take Jamal Anderson out of the game. The Vikings succeeded in taking away Anderson's running game. But one of the smart things Reeves did was turning Anderson into a receiver out of the backfield. Anderson had six receptions, basically turning those catches into sweeps and getting Anderson into open space.

Before the game, I thought the tight ends for both the Vikings and the Falcons would be key. In the Falcons' last drive in overtime, O.J. Santiago had a couple of nice catches to take Atlanta down the field. He could be a key to Reeves' game plan in the Super Bowl as well.

Denver has John Mobley and Bill Romanowski at outside linebacker, and they can't match up height-wise against Santiago, who is 6-foot-7. Santiago averages more than 15 yards per reception. But if Santiago runs down the middle of the field, that could keep safeties Steve Atwater and Tyrone Braxton in the middle and not allow them to help defend Terance Mathis and Tony Martin on the outside.

 
Merril Hoge
ESPN's Merril Hoge: The Falcons will stay within their offensive system, but the Broncos do have some vulnerabilities in the middle of their secondary. Steve Atwater and Tyrone Braxton are very experienced, but they don't run that well. Tony Martin and Terance Mathis have the speed to get down the middle, and Santiago can challenge both the linebackers and the secondary in terms of getting deep down the middle.

Expect Atlanta to test Denver down the middle, and the Falcons will try to create their matchups on the outside because they have better overall speed at receiver than the Broncos have in their secondary. The question ultimately will come down to whether the Falcons provide Chris Chandler with enough protection to challenge the Broncos' secondary.

 
Sean Salisbury
ESPN's Sean Salisbury: Atlanta can't attack Denver's defense any differently than the Falcons have attacked every defense they have played this year. Anderson has to be a factor, because he can wear an opponent down. The Broncos defense is fairly stout up front, but the Falcons are looking forward to that muscle-on-muscle challenge.

Atlanta has a good offensive line, and Anderson doesn't believe there's a person alive who can stop him. He is so confident right now that even if a team contains him for a while, he thinks he's eventually going to get his yards.

If you put the ball in Chandler's hands, good things are going to happen, especially in the red zone. He made the big plays when he had to, and Martin and Mathis can make big plays deep.

Just like the Broncos, Atlanta's offense is built around a running back, but it also features a quarterback who can beat an opponent with his arm and his mind.

 
How has John Elway changed as a QB from the Dan Reeves era?
Mike Golic
ESPN's Mike Golic: Elway is different in that he uses his senses better, meaning he doesn't take off like he used to. When Elway rolled out earlier in his career, that meant he was running. Now he scrambles and will wait until the last minute to run.

He's trying until the very last second to find his receiver, because he realizes he has to pick and choose his battles as far as running with the football, like he did in last season's Super Bowl. He also did it Sunday vs. the Jets, when he ran a nice little bootleg to move the chains.


 
Merril Hoge
ESPN's Merril Hoge: There has been quite a drastic change in Elway's performance, but that mostly has to do with the fact the Broncos have become much more diversified in their offensive philosophy. Now they're willing to spread it out with a five-receiver look at any time, and Denver is much more complete with the presence of Davis. Elway no longer has to win every down like he did before.

It used to be the John Elway show, and he had to beat teams single-handedly. Now he has a running game and a full complement of weapons. The Broncos are much more dynamic, and they're multi-faceted.

When Reeves was coaching Denver, the Broncos believed in fundamental football, running play-action and throwing. They didn't have the philosophy that it's OK to run or throw on any down, like they do now.

 
Sean Salisbury
ESPN's Sean Salisbury: The Broncos used to get to the Super Bowl because of Elway. No disrespect for past Broncos teams, but if Elway hadn't been on the team in the three Super Bowl appearances under Dan Reeves, Denver would have been lucky to win nine games. The Broncos would have never sniffed the Super Bowl. Elway loaded the team on his back and carried it there. A lesser player would have never gotten the Broncos to the Super Bowl.

Now Elway has a teammate in Davis who can help push Denver over the top. Elway's game hasn't changed much, but the funny thing about football is that just when a quarterback begins to understand it all, it's about time to retire.

Elway is still very physically gifted, and his smarts and decision-making have improved. Now he knows when to rely on Davis, and he knows that if the Broncos can just hang onto the ball, they will have a chance to win every week.

Elway probably has a better relationship with Mike Shanahan than he did with Reeves, but as a quarterback, the only thing that has changed with Elway is that he has gotten wiser and has a better supporting cast.

 
Matchup to watch
Mike Golic
ESPN's Mike Golic: Atlanta's defensive line vs. Denver's offensive line
Denver likes the sweep to the offensive left, and the Broncos might have to move Sharpe to that side of the line to block down on Smith and keep him out of the picture. That will put the pressure on outside linebacker Cornelius Bennett, who will need to come upfield and force Davis to cut back if Atlanta's defense is going to be successful. The Falcons' ends and outside linebackers must be able to turn Davis back, because the sweeps were working very well Sunday against the Jets.
 
Merril Hoge
ESPN's Merril Hoge: The first great matchup that jumps out is Denver's offensive line vs. Atlanta's defensive line. Ultimately, that could be the pivotal point in terms of who wins the game. On offense, the key to watch will be Atlanta's Santiago, Martin and Mathis against Denver's secondary of Ray Crockett, Darrien Gordon, Atwater and Braxton. Those four will have their hands full.
 
Sean Salisbury
ESPN's Sean Salisbury: The Falcons are going to have to find someone who can stay with Sharpe. They must find a linebacker who's quick enough to cover the Denver tight end or a strong safety who can play physical against him.

The other matchup will be how the Broncos' safeties react to Chandler's play-action fakes. Atwater and Braxton are extremely physical, and they're going to be coming up to support the run. Chandler has a good play-action fake, and his backup quarterback is Steve DeBerg, who almost reinvented the play-action fake, along with Boomer Esiason. If Chandler can sell that fake, he might find a lot of single coverage on the outside corners against Mathis and Martin as the safeties get a little nosy.

 
 
And the winner is ...
Mike Golic
ESPN's Mike Golic: I'm going to be crazy and say Atlanta can pull it off. It seems like it's their year. I'm not a big believer in destiny, fate and those sorts of things, but when Gary Anderson missed his only field goal of the season, one that would have locked up the game for Minnesota, that scored one for destiny.
 
Merril Hoge
ESPN's Merril Hoge: If Atlanta holds Terrell Davis to less than 100 yards rushing, the Falcons can win this ballgame. If Davis reaches the century mark, the Broncos will take their second straight Super Bowl.
 
Sean Salisbury
ESPN's Sean Salisbury: My early pick is experience, and the Broncos have that edge. While Reeves has been there plenty of times, the rest of the Falcons haven't. Denver is going into this game looking to send Elway out on a high note. Denver has gotten over the pressure of losing a couple of Super Bowls. The Broncos have won a title, and my initial prediction is Denver 31-27 or 31-28. A high-scoring game that's not a blowout, which is just what you want from a Super Bowl.

 

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