College Football
Monday, January 3
Weinke will win it for 'Noles
By Rodney Gilmore
Special to ESPN.com

Quarterbacks
Edge: Florida State
The thing I like about Chris Weinke is that he has proven this season that he can overcome adversity. In the Florida game, he threw a terrible interception that was returned for a touchdown. Yet he didn't fold, made some big plays and led his team to victory. When Peter Warrick, his best receiver, was lost for two games, Weinke held the team together. He didn't panic and got the Seminoles through some tough spots, even when they had some close games. I also like that he has 25 TD passes and only 14 interceptions. I think he is also motivated after having to sit out the national championship game last year with a neck injury.

Chris Weinke
Chris Weinke was the nation's seventh-ranked passer and tossed 25 TD passes.

I'm not overly concerned that Weinke isn't as mobile as Michael Vick. Weinke has been sacked only 22 times because he is a smart quarterback who knows when to get rid of the ball. Vick, meanwhile, is a great player who is mature beyond his years. I don't think the game itself is going to throw him off. But he has never dealt with a Sugar Bowl-type environment. You have wonder if distractions will affect him during the days before the game. That is time away from preparation.

Another huge factor is that he has only thrown 153 passes this year. Weinke (377) has thrown more than twice as many passes. If the Hokies' running game is ineffective, Vick may have to throw 30 times. I suspect he can overcome adversity, but he hasn't been in a situation in which he has been behind by more than 10 points. That's why I give the edge to Weinke.

Running backs
Edge: Even
Travis Minor (815 yards, seven touchdowns) is incredibly underrated. He is a versatile back who can catch the ball and is averaging 4.5 yards a carry. I think he will be more important in the Sugar Bowl than Peter Warrick and other players. At some point Florida State will decide that the best way to attack the Virginia Tech defense is to pound the ball inside.

For Virginia Tech, Shyrone Stith had a big season, with 1,119 yards and 15 touchdowns. Plus, he averaged five yards a carry. But I don't see Stith, Andre Kendrick and Jarrett Ferguson combining to match their average rushing yardage or breaking long runs. Sometimes, a Virginia Tech back will break a 30- or 40-yarder. But Florida State's defense is fast and will play a lot of zone. There won't be as much opportunity for the backs to make big plays.

Receivers/Tight ends
Edge: Florida State
Any time Peter Warrick is on your team, you have an advantage at the receiver spot. I also think that we will see the full complement of the Florida State receivers. Nobody has a better or deep group of receivers than the Seminoles -- Warrick, Ron Dugans, Marvin Minnis, Robert Morgan and freshman Anquan Boldin. They will used to spread out the Virginia Tech defense early on to allow Weinke to see the pressure and allow his talented receivers to make plays in the open space.

GILMORE'S GRADES
Florida State   Virginia Tech
X QB  
X RB X
X WR/TE  
X OL X
  DL X
  LB X
  DB X
X Special teams  
X Coaching  

As for the Hokies, they will be hurt by the loss of Ricky Hall, their second-leading receiver, to a broken bone in his foot. That means the receiver opposite standout Andre Davis will be Shawn Whitten, who has only six catches for the season. Davis has been outstanding, with 35 catches, nine of them for touchdowns. Without Hall, Davis will be the primary focus of the Seminole secondary. He may not get an opportunity in single coverage to make big plays.

The Seminoles will be more conservative in the secondary than they have been during the season. Florida State receivers run better after the catch than the Virginia Tech receivers. A lot of the Hokies' big plays have come off long, beautiful 60-yard passes from Vick. The Seminole receivers can turn 12-yard completions into 60-yard gains.

The matchup between the tight ends is even. The tight ends for each team have different functions, but they are important. Ryan Sprague and Patrick Hughes of Florida State will have to block well when the Seminoles run at Virginia Tech defensive ends Corey Moore and John Engelberger. Sprague and Hughes will have to chip them in pass protection to slow them down. Derek Carter of Virginia Tech will be important as a hot receiver for Vick. When Vick is in trouble, Carter will be a nice, easy target for Vick to keep a drive alive or make a difference.

Offensive line
Edge: Even
Compared to each other, the lines are even. But when you compare them against the opposing defensive lines, the Virginia Tech offensive line has the advantage. That's simply because the Hokies' defensive line will put more stress on the Seminole offensive line. Florida State has protected Weinke well, allowing only 22 sacks. Much of that, though, can be attributed to Weinke being smart and getting rid of the football and not just pass protection. Virginia Tech's offensive line is good, but Vick has often made things happen after a play has broken down. So I can't give the Hokies an edge either.

Defensive line
Edge: Virginia Tech
Corey Moore and John Engelberger, who have combined for 24 sacks, are All-Americans at defensive end and can be very effective in an overload situation (when the Hokies outnumber Florida State on one side of the ball). The Hokies play with a fast motor, going hard all the time. I don't think they will be intimidated.

The question will be how the Hokies hold up when Florida State runs at them. Not many teams have run well at Virginia Tech, although Boston College rushed for 181 yards in the Hokies' last game.

Everybody talks about All-America nose guard Corey Simon of the Seminoles, but they overlook defensive tackle Jerry Johnson. The two tackles are great together, but Johnson deserves more credit than he gets. One drawback about the Seminoles is that they only have 29 sacks and have been inconsistent at times dealing with the running game. They allowed only 62 yards to Florida, but also gave up 189 yards to Virginia and 148 to Maryland. Virginia Tech's defensive line has been much more consistent against the run and has more sacks.

Linebackers
Edge: Virginia Tech
The Florida State linebackers -- Tommy Polley, Brian Allen and Bradley Jennings -- are the leading tacklers. They run well and will need their speed in this game because Vick is faster than each of them. Containing Vick is a huge task for the Florida State linebackers. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech's linebackers play hard all the time, particularly Jamel Smith, the team's leading tackler, and Michael Hawkes.

But will the Hokie backers be able to hold up in space when Florida State is able to get to receivers isolated on them? When the Seminoles pound it, will they be physical enough to stuff the run? I think they will. The Hokies have more of a problem when put in space against multiple-receiver sets if they don't recognize personnel changes. But I give a slight edge to Virginia Tech.

Defensive backs
Edge: Virginia Tech
I love the play of cornerbacks Ike Charlton and Anthony Midget. Free safety Nick Sorensen had a great season, but is a matchup problem for the Hokies. He doesn't run well enough to handle one-on-one coverage on any of the Florida State receivers. It's important for the Hokies to get into their nickel package, get Sorensen to the line of scrimmage in a blitz formation or get him back to where he isn't involved in man coverage.

I think the Florida State secondary can play great, but has been inconsistent against the pass. The Seminoles have given up too many big plays and too much yardage -- 380 yards against Florida, 370 against Miami, and 387 against Georgia Tech. I think the Seminoles will play less man-to-man, more zone blitz and more coverages with the free safety helping out in the middle. Overall, the Seminoles haven't played as well as the Virginia Tech secondary.

HEAD-TO-HEAD
CATEGORY TECH FSU
Scoring offense 41.4 37.5
Total offense 451.8 425.7
Rushing offense 253.9 122.8
Passing offense 197.9 302.9
Scoring defense 10.5 15.8
Total defense 247.3 304.6
Rushing defense 75.9 98.8
Passing defense 171.3 205.8

Special teams
Edge: Florida State
It's hard to pick against either team in special teams. Florida State has All-America place-kicker Sebastian Janikowski, who will make it impossible for Virginia Tech to get any kick returns. He can also kick field goals from almost anywhere. Virginia Tech's Shayne Graham isn't going to miss kicks either, and made a pressure-packed, game-winning kick against West Virginia. Virginia Tech traditionally has a reputation for blocking kicks, but Florida State blocked six kicks this year. In the return game, the Seminoles get the advantage because of Warrick. If he gets his hands on a punt return, he can take it the distance. I have to lean toward Florida State, with Warrick being the difference.

Coaching
Edge: Florida State
You don't know beforehand whose game plan will work better. In terms of preparation, the two teams are on par. To me, the difference is clock management. Bobby Bowden and his Seminole staff have experienced more close games and stressful situations this season than Frank Beamer and company. The Hokies dominated every team but one. The Seminoles had more situations in which they had to squeeze out a late field goal or prevent the other team from getting a possession.

Overall
Edge: Florida State
I think that the Seminoles will do a good job of spreading out the Virginia Tech defense and creating the favorable matchups against the Hokies' secondary. Then the Seminoles will use Minor to pound inside against a Virginia Tech defense that is faster but smaller. Plus, I think Weinke will play a fantastic game.

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