Atlanta at Minnesota


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ESPN experts' playoff picks




ESPN analyst Tom Jackson thinks Minnesota will have to play better versus Atlanta.
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For the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons, the enemy in next Sunday's conference championship games will not only be Denver and Minnesota.

	The noise at the Metrodome certainly affected Jake Plummer and the Cardinals on Sunday.

It will be noise.

In fact, the noise at Mile High Stadium and the Metrodome might be harder to overcome than the Broncos and the Vikings. The crowd certainly jump-started Minnesota on Sunday against Arizona, which had the ball for just 54 seconds in the first quarter of its 41-21 loss to the Vikings.

Overall, the factors going into the conference title games are the same as when the playoffs started, when the Broncos and Vikings looked odds-on to reach the Super Bowl, with the Jets as the darkhorse.

After this weekend, when the Broncos returned to their form of the first half of the regular season, the odds favoring the home teams might be even bigger.

"This was as focused as we have been, and we played our best game all year," John Elway said after Saturday's 38-3 demolition of Miami, a team that beat the Broncos just 19 days earlier.

Here's a look at the two conference championship games.

New York Jets (13-4) at Denver (15-2)
The Jets, 1-15 just two years ago, are riding what's becoming known around the NFL as the "Bill Parcells mystique." And if they beat the Broncos next week, Parcells will become the first coach to take three different teams to Super Bowls.

	CATCHING ON QUICKLY
	Keyshawn Johnson is tied for the second most prolific playoff debut among receivers:
	Seas.		Rec.
	1958	Raymond Berry (Colts) vs. New York Giants	12
	1998	Keyshawn Johnson (Jets) vs. Jacksonville	9
	1991	Tom Waddle (Bears) vs. Dallas	9
	1988	Keith Byars (Eagles) vs. Chicago	9
	1985	Al Toon (Jets) vs. New England	9
	1983	Mark Duper (Dolphins) vs. Seattle	9
	1982	Roy Green (Cardinals) vs. Green Bay	9
	1973	Lenvil Elliott (Cin.) vs. Miami	9
	1957	Bill Wilson (49ers) vs. Detroit	9

It won't be easy unless they take the Mile High crowd out of it.

The Jets have won seven straight and finished the regular season on the kind of roll Parcells had with his best team -- the 1986 Giants.

But this team is more like Parcells' 1990 Giants -- heady, gritty, and experienced. They even have three members of that team -- offensive tackle Jumbo Elliott, linebacker Pepper Johnson and kick returner/third-down back Dave Meggett.

"There are a lot of teams with a lot more talent than us," says Vinny Testaverde, the quarterback whose career was resurrected by Parcells. "But it's hard to measure the heart and these guys have tremendous heart."

They also have the surprise element.

"We haven't played them for awhile," Elway said Sunday. "We don't know what they're all about. We'll have to start from scratch."

But the Jets probably don't have the defense to stop all the elements of Denver's offense -- Terrell Davis, Elway, tight end Shannon Sharpe and receivers Ed McCaffrey and Rod Smith.

Yes, defensive coordinator Bill Belichick will devise some odd schemes, but Elway is too experienced to get thrown off balance.

And yes, the Jets offense can probably move the ball against a Denver defense that's experienced but movable. Curtis Martin and New York's offensive line are far more dangerous that the banged-up group Miami put on the field Saturday.

But if the Denver defense doesn't force mistakes, the crowd will.

"They're an amazing team," the Jets' Keyshawn Johnson said of Denver. "Obviously, they are the Super Bowl champions and everything's in their favor."

Say this about Johnson.

He usually speaks the truth.

Atlanta (15-2) at Minnesota (16-1)
This will be the first conference title game in a dome, and the winner will be the first dome team to reach a Super Bowl.

What the Falcons have going for them is experience.

Chris Chandler, the 33-year-old quarterback, is unlikely to be as rattled as Arizona's Jake Plummer was in the first 20 minutes in the Metrodome. Eugene Robinson, the free safety, played in the last two Super Bowls for Green Bay, and coach Dan Reeves has been to eight Super Bowls as player, assistant coach and head coach, including three with the Broncos.

"We dreamed about it a lot, but we were not sure it was a reachable goal," Chandler said of his Super Bowl dreams. "It's been a season of modifying goals all the way."

To modify their goals again, the Falcons will need to control the ball against the Vikings, something they're capable of doing with Jamal Anderson. They're also capable of scoring against the Minnesota defense.

But the Metrodome crowd is adept at drawing false start and delay penalties, and Chandler's teammates will be hard-pressed to hear his calls.

The bigger problem will be defensing Randall Cunningham and the Vikings.

Stop Randy Moss, and Cris Carter will make plays.

Stop both, and it's Robert Smith.

Stop all of them, and a role player such as Leroy Hoard or David Palmer can run behind an offensive line with three Pro Bowlers -- left tackle Todd Steussie, left guard Randall McDaniel and center Jeff Christy.

The Vikings aren't a perfect team.

But they're almost a perfect offense.