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Saturday, Jan. 16 4:40am ET Breaking down the Jets and Broncos |
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By Sean Salisbury, special to ESPN.com
The Broncos defense is stout and physical up front, but I go with the Jets. New York won't get huge yards running on Denver. However, it doesn't matter how many yards Curtis Martin gets; he's still going to carry the ball a lot. That's what Bill Parcells likes to do. He doesn't care if there are eight or nine defenders playing near the line of scrimmage. It's an attitude, testing the other team's manhood. If Martin gets 60 yards on 30 carries, then so be it. The Broncos will play the Jets pretty straight up because of the threat of Vinny Testaverde, but the Jets get a slight advantage because of their commitment to the run and Martin's durability.
The Broncos line got very angry last week because of what happened the first time they played Miami. And what did Denver do in the AFC divisional playoffs? Terrell Davis rushed for 199 yards and didn't look like he was working hard, even though he was. He's the best back in the league and the MVP. He'll get his yards. The Broncos line knows how to get to the second level of blockers and spring Davis for big gains. Like Jamal Anderson, you can't tackle Davis with one arm. The key to stopping Davis will be backside protection. The Jets had better fill those gaps because of Davis' cutback ability. Of the 199 yards Davis got last week, about 140 could be attributed to the Broncos' backside blocking. They might have the best blocking receivers, Ed McCaffrey and Rod Smith, in the NFL. They are committed to blocking downfield. McCaffrey will get to the safety and at least shield him. If that happens Sunday, it'll be a long day for the Jets.
The Jets have the perfect mix of three types of receivers. They have a tight end, Kyle Brady, who can move around and get down the middle of the field. They have Wayne Chrebet, who's the prototypical ball-control receiver. Size-wise, he's not. But he'll go 12 yards on a curl route, get open and catch the ball. Then New York has the threat of Keyshawn Johnson, who will catch the ball over the middle. He looks big, but he plays bigger than he is. He has a physical mentality; he's not a finesse player. Yet he runs and has the hands of a finesse player. He's a great deep threat. The Broncos linebackers are really active, and if they can get back in their drops and force Testaverde to check off receivers, they can win this battle.
One big question: How healthy is Jets cornerback Aaron Glenn? McCaffrey and Smith are two very good receivers, and the Broncos have a third target in Pro Bowl tight end Shannon Sharpe, who gives them a decided mismatch. You can't cover Sharpe with a defensive back because then the Jets would be in a nickel or a dime. Then, the Broncos running game would take over. The Jets must have a linebacker who can stop the run and be physical against Sharpe, not letting him get a free release. Of all four teams still alive, the Broncos have one key advantage: John Elway. He has the experience of playing in a ton of big games. Plus, he's playing at home and can still get yards with his feet as well as his arm.
The Jets kickers know they must kick well or face the wrath of Parcells. But Jason Elam has excellent range, Tom Rouen has great hang-time on his punts, and Darrien Gordon is still a threat as a return man. The edge goes to Denver.
When it comes to assistant coaches, this is an even matchup. When it comes to head coaches, it's pretty even because Parcells and Mike Shanahan have both won Super Bowls. Shanahan might not be the No. 1 coach, but he's not No. 4. I don't think anyone's a better coach than Parcells. On a scale of 1-10, Parcells is a 12 and Shanahan an 11. That's the utmost respect I can pay to Shanahan, but I still have to give Parcells the advantage for what he's done with every team he's coached. If the Jets go to the Super Bowl, don't bet against them because if you were to take one coach for one game, Parcells would have to be the guy.
I take Denver because of Mile High Stadium. If this game were in the Meadowlands, I'd pick the Jets. New York must win the same way as Atlanta this weekend -- by running the ball and winning time of possession. If the Jets can get a five- to eight-minute difference in time of possession, they can win on the road. If they get in a shooting match with the Broncos, the Jets won't win. They have to control the clock with Martin running the ball and Testaverde completing the ball-control pass, which is really an extension of the running game.
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