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 Sunday, November 7
At-large berths don't come easy
 
By Rob Neyer
ESPN.com

 Ah, the plight of the "mid-major" basketball programs. Every year, some school goes 22-7, yet winds up in the NIT, while other schools with 17-11 records do get invited to The Big Dance. Why?

First, some of you might be wondering, "(A) What's a mid-major, and (B) who came up with that label?"

To answer part A of that question, a mid-major conference is one whose teams are rarely seen on national television and once in a while has one of its members earn an at-large invitation to the NCAA Tournament. For example, two teams -- one automatic, one not -- occasionally come out of the Missouri Valley Conference, but two teams never come out of the Big South Conference.

As for part B, nobody's admitting to it, because it's something of a generic, non-descriptive term.

In terms of wins and losses, not much has changed over the years. This won't be a surprise to anyone, but mid-majors generally need to win at least 20 games to earn an at-large bid. Of the 16 mid-majors that garnered at-large bids since 1994, only two failed to reach 20 wins ... and both of them -- Western Kentucky in 1994, and Santa Clara in 1996 -- won 19 games.

However, there's a demarcation line between 1995 and 1997. In 1994 and 1995, the tournament selection committee went out of its way to reward mid-majors that captured conference championships during the regular season, but faltered in their conference tournaments.

We can see this by looking not at victories, but where the at-large teams finished in the NCAA's RPI ranking system.

Those two years, the following mid-majors earned NCAA tourney berths (for a complete chart, see bottom of page):

Year    School               Conference        RPI Rank
1994    W. Kentucky          Sun Belt             41
1994    Col. of Charleston   TAAC                 52
1994    Tulsa                Missouri Valley      59
1995    Xavier               MCC                  40
1995    Santa Clara          West Coast           51
1995    Manhattan            MAAC                 54
1995    Miami (Ohio)         MAC                  56

Since then, it's been tougher on the mid-majors, or maybe it's just that better mid-majors have been wiped out in their conference tournaments. Nine such schools have been invited to the tournament since 1995. In 1996, Wisconsin-Green Bay (No. 23), Bradley (No. 29) and Santa Clara (No. 32) all boasted fine spots in the RPI rankings. In 1997, no mid-majors drew at-large bids. And in 1998 and 1999, only Western Michigan, No. 59 in the 1998 RPI rankings, garnered an at-large bid with a ranking worse than No. 50.

How have the mid-majors with at-large bids done in the NCAA Tournament? Not so well, at least not until 1999. From 1994 through 1998, 13 such teams danced The Big Dance and they combined for a 7-13 record. Only Tubby Smith-coached Tulsa reached the Sweet 16, and that was back in 1994.

A year ago, however, two mid-majors who made the tournament with at-large bids broke through in a big way. Southwest Missouri State won two games before being eliminated by Duke, and Miami (Ohio), led by Wally Szczerbiak, also reached the Sweet 16 before getting knocked out by Kentucky.

So what does it take for mid-majors to make it to the NCAAs, assuming they don't win their conference tournament? It's best to win at least 20 games, preferably 22. And it's best to play a tough non-conference schedule (and win a few of those games), thus boosting the RPI rating that the selection committee does consider.

And with those numbers and a little luck, a mid-major might be finding itself fitted for Cinderella's glass slipper.

Mid-major teams receiving at-large bids, 1994-1999
Year Team Conference RPI Record NCAA seed NCAA rec.
1999 SW Missouri St. MVC 36 20-10 12 2-1
1999 Miami (Ohio) MAC 22 22-7 10 2-1
1999 Evansville MVC 48 23-9 11 0-1
1998 Ill.-Chicago MCC 30 22-5 9 0-1
1998 Detroit MCC 38 22-5 10 1-1
1998 W. Michigan MAC 59 20-7 11 1-1
1996 Bradley MVC 29 22-7 8 0-1
1996 Wis.-Green Bay MCC 23 24-3 8 0-1
1996 Santa Clara WCC 32 19-8 10 1-1
1995 Xavier MCC 40 22-4 11 0-1
1995 Manhattan MAAC 54 25-4 13 1-1
1995 Miami (Ohio) MAC 56 21-6 12 1-1
1995 Santa Clara WCC 51 20-6 12 0-1
1994 Col. of Charl. TAAC 52 22-3 12 0-1
1994 W. Kentucky Sun Belt 41 19-10 11 0-1
1994 Tulsa MVC 59 20-7 12 2-1
 
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ALSO SEE
The very model of a mid-major general

Five mid-majors to watch